we have all been here before

I know I have been through more with my investment in Lynas than practically any other investment I have made... I say "practically" because some of my best investments have had an even rougher start than my overweight position in Lynas...

Let's take Apple computer as an example... Take a look a chart from Apple sometime. It basically went from $6 / share in 2004 to over $550 / share today. Nice appreciation if you were holding some (Nobody seems to have enough)... Apple makes computer systems that are second to no one and building on a Mac foundation, Apple expanded it's market to include many new products that consumers never realized they needed. It took vision to invest in Apple back then while I didn't totally miss the boat, I sure wish I had followed my instincts a little closer...

One other example is Intel. I really enjoy the story about the group of IBM engineers that were shown the very first handheld calculator utilizing the 4004 microprocessor. Smart guys those IBM engineers, but they took one look at the calculator with the new microprocessor thing, and predicted that Intel would never recoup it's initial investment by selling handheld calculators.

Now, take a look at the Intel chart back in the 70's. It defines the word exponential and for those with vision to see beyond the calculator, well let's just say Steve Jobs was one of those visionaries.

So it comes down to vision. I follow the future RE engineers in the world by frequently visiting the Colorado School of Mines. I'm not sure if the white paper I have linked here was written by these guys (they referenced it), but in reading, it shows vision for the Rare Earth industry that is severely lacking in some of our current leaders. This include Jack Lifton who's recent "Rare Earth Bull" article spells a stagnant future for the entire RE industry.

Here is the summary paragraph from that white paper:

Summary: Bright Future!

Given the quantities involved, it seems likely that the future market for master alloys based on the rare earth metals will be both large and fast-growing. Other promising uses are the high-Tc superconductors, metal-hydride batteries and the permanent magnet market. In this article, we have largely ignored the markets for rare earth compounds, especially the oxides, but these are already very large and growing rapidly. Fortunately, the rare earth minerals are widespread and plentiful and the present supply will take care of any foreseeable demand for many years to come. Technology now under development will result in needed cost reductions for many rare earth products and will promote the emergence of many new markets. The future looks bright!

http://doc.diytrade.com/docdvr/316680/4567042/1193710377.pdf

This is true vision for the future of RE's and it is being developed by the rising engineering stars that are looking at RE's in a completely different light. In short, these kids have vision...

I am getting tired of following the day to day disappointments of Lynas, just as much as the next guy...

Fuziah is still threatening the startup of lamp, there is (unwarranted) concern about shipping concentrate through Fremantle and the commissioning of LAMP has yet to be completed. But wait... The commissioning of LAMP has yet to finish?

That is not totally true, there is a program in place that is "virtually" commissioning LAMP as we speak. Those familiar with the commissioning of major projects are certainly familiar with the methods that can be used to perform a virtual startup using manufacturer developed computer programs to simulate the actual operation of a system.

This "virtual" operation is used in many industries and serve to gear up a system process to near operating conditions. This time allows for the completion of the "loose ends" and ancillary items that often seems to be put on the back burner during the normal commissioning process.

We have all been here before.

As we transition from the dream to the reality, it takes real vision to see that LAMP and the entire process will find complete success in a marketplace that is set to explode once a stable supply of RE's become available. Look at how far we have come...

Sure I like to read articles by Jack Lifton which look at the RE market from one (negative) vantage point, but then I look to the vision of the soon-to-be engineers who will really guide this market. I guess I don't hate to say it, but my money is on the kids... JMHO...