BIT 0.00% 2.5¢ biotron limited

we have the drug/now we wont the money, page-5

  1. Neo
    2,195 Posts.
    Hi Sav,

    Remeber we now have 228 million shares on issue so a buy out would be something like this.

    60c = 136.8million
    120c = 273.6 million
    240c = 547.2 million

    Like Pig's mentioned, none of us know what a buy out NOW would be worth. However for speculation sake, i'll take a "gamble"

    Note: Pharmasset, Inibex, and Andays are what I'm basing my assumptions on.

    IMO we are no where near the "billion" dollar range yet, since we haven't done any partnered trails, and BIT225 hasn't been "proven yet" in big sample groups- unlike like inibex's( IDX184) & pharmassest (PSI-7977). Note both these lead drugs also " belong to the same "nucleoside" or "nuc" class of oral Hep C drugs"

    So that leaves us with Anady's.... ther lead drug "ANA598" (setrobuvir), a direct-acting antiviral showed promising results like BIT225 and was also on Ph2 trails. Anaady's were also close to us in terms of cash on hand( They had around 20 million, when they were bought out my Roche)...

    Important note: All 3 of these company's had done partnered trails....including Anady's who had a done Phase II study in combination with Roche’s hepatitis C standard of care Pegasys (peginterferon alfa).

    In our favor though the real advantage of BIT2225 is that it targets both HCV/HIV, which is something no one else can really offer( It's also something that's still yet to "bubble" in the industry).... How much extra value is it worth right now?? Who knows, however it's probabley not much untill we can present some results...

    As Follows:

    Pharmasset was bought out (11 billion)- 89% premium to SP
    Inibex was bought out for (2.5 billion)-126% premium to SP
    Andays was bought out for (230million)- 256% premium to SP

    Notice the lower the buy out the higher the premium( makes logical sense)


    Taking this all into account. IMO a buy out offer NOW when our SP is around 0.15, would be somewhere around the 135million mark(0.60), which would represent around a 400% premium from the current SP( The same figure that's been thrown around the forums). Judging from previous buy outs and the current state of our SP, it makes sense to presume that no significant t/o over would be presented until our SP moves far north. I mean why would big pharma pay big premium when they don't need have to? Unless a bidding war starts- which would move the SP north anyway.....

    A guy called Warren Buffet taught me the following on how much to offer in a T/O bid....

    Using the buy out premiums from above:

    256-126%= 130% + 126%-89%= 37%

    130% + 37%= 167%, add that to the 256% Andays premium and you have 423% which would equal a buyout of(135million/0.63)

    - Please note I don't stand by the above calculation, nor does Warren Buffet. Just thought it was funny that it worked out to be around 60 cents also ;)

    Anyway, In my real opinion a buy out will not happen until BIT225 is involved in a partnered trail......IMO this is what the next driving force will be, and that is what will send us far north. If we do a partnered trail with big pharma, then we'll start getting some real attention- might even find our name popping up in some Bloomberg news story ;)



 
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