https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8142721/Shocking-figures-reveal-Australias-hospitals-17-DAYS-overwhelmed-coronavirus.htmlAustralia's hospitals are 17 DAYS from being overwhelmed by coronavirus victims with shocking figures showing the true extent of the crisis - leaving doctors to make the horrible decision of who to treat and who to leave to die
- There could be more coronavirus patients than ICU beds in Australia by April 10
- Dr Norman Swan told Q&A current infection rates meant 45,000 cases in 17 days
- Unless the virus spread is slowed, Australia will be overwhelmed like Italy
- In Italy, patients lie on mattresses on the floor, the elderly are turned away to die
- NSW Opposition health spokesman says: start building temporary hospitals now
- Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?
Australia's intensive care units will be completely overwhelmed withcoronaviruspatients in just 17 days unless the virus is stopped from spreading.
TV presenter Dr Norman Swan warned on Monday night a frightening scenario of 45,000 Covid-19 cases swamping hospital capacity was less than three weeks away if current infection rates were not brought down.
'If this hockey stick [shape of sharp increase in cases] doesn't change that much, we'll be out of ICU beds in New South Wales, Victoria will be behind that, by April 10,' he said on ABC's Q&A.
'And in that case ICU physicians will be faced with some very difficult decisions. And overseas, 30 per cent to 40 per cent of ICU beds are filled with young people'.
The number of coronavirus cases rose by a record number to 1,886 on Monday with seven dead, and is now doubling every two to five days.
Dr Norman Swan told Q&A that doctors will have to choose who gets to have an ICU bed and who dies by April 10 if coronavirus case numbers do not drastically slow
Doctors will be forced to make difficult decisions with more patients than beds
Australia has just 2,229 intensive care unit beds, according to a 2018 report from the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZIC).
About 5 percent of people with coronavirus become so seriously ill they need intensive care unit treatment to survive.
In his Q&A comments Dr Swan referred to estimates that by April 10 more than 45,000 Australians will have coronavirus, based on current infection rates and taking government countermeasures into account.
With that number of cases, 2,254 people would need intensive care unit beds, complete with specialist nursing staff and a ventilator machine.
That is more people requiring intensive care than there are ICU beds in the entire country, a horror scenario which could become reality in just 17 days.
This would not leave even one bed for those who need intensive care for injuries from car accidents, heart attacks or other causes.
But even before the coronavirus pandemic ANZIC reported that Australia's intensive care units have already been running at or near capacity without the coronavirus.
ANU College of Health and Medicine Professor Shane Thomas said the Covid-19 death rate would rise if there weren't enough ICU beds.
The Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZIC) surveyed ICU bed numbers in 2017-18. For each bed, specially trained nurses and ventilator machines are also needed
Doctors will have to choose who gets an ICU bed and a chance to live - and who is left to die
There were just 2229 ICU beds in Australia in 2018, a number which will be completely swamped by coronavirus patients in less than three weeks
'If there's less beds [than people] you've got a problem as then you have to make decisions on who to save,' he said.
Doctors in Italy have been completely overwhelmed by the number of severe cases, and have had to choose who to give ICU beds to on the basis of who is most likely to survive, knowing that those who miss out will die.
As a result Italy's death rate sits at 9.26 per cent, much higher than neighbouring countries such as Germany, which has a death rate of less than 1 per cent.
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
4.6ksharesA paper signed by ten Italian physicians in the New England Journal of Medicine on Saturday detailed the horrors that had overwhelmed their hospital.
'We work at the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital in Bergamo, a brand-new state-of-the-art facility with 48 intensive-care beds,' the doctors wrote.
'Our own hospital is highly contaminated, and we are far beyond the tipping point: 300 beds out of 900 are occupied by Covid-19 patients.
'Fully 70 percent of ICU beds in our hospital are reserved for critically ill Covid-19 patients with a reasonable chance to survive.'
Cases of coronavirus soared to 1,886 on Tuesday
'Older patients are not being resuscitated and die alone without appropriate palliative care.'
The doctors wrote the situation in surrounding areas was even worse with patients lying on floor mattresses, and said cemeteries have been overwhelmed which will create a public health problem.
Australia has an average of 8.92 ICU beds per 100,000 population, but Professor Thomas said it wasn't just about the beds.
'There's the beds and also the ventilator units - a critical care bed doesn't necessarily have a ventilator attached,' he said.
ICU beds also need specially trained nurses to provide round-the-clock care.
'It's not just ventilators or beds but staff to run them,' he said.
Professor Thomas said he was concerned there was not enough protective equipment to take care of the health care workers: masks, gowns and face shields.
Australia has an average of 8.92 ICU beds per 100,000 population and intensive care units are already running at capacity according to ANZIC
Without the qualified staff to run the ICU units, the capacity would fall further.
New South Wales is the epicentre of the virus with more cases than any other state.
Shadow Health Minister Ryan Park told Daily Mail Australia he was worried about the enormous pressure ICU units would soon be under.
'The reality is we're in for a very, very difficult period,' he said.
'We may need to look at building temporary hospitals like overseas. We all hope we're not going to get to that.'
'Look at Italy - it's killing a lot of people every day. It's not a mild cough or cold, it's a dangerous pandemic, there's no herd immunity and no vaccine.'
Professor Raina MacIntyre, the head of Biosecurity at the University of New South Wales's Kirby Institute, said if just 20 percent of Australia's population were infected that would mean almost 5million people would get coronavirus.
Estimated covid-19 spread until there are more critical cases than ICU beds Date Number infected Estimated ICU beds needed Monday 23 March 1,716 85 Sunday 29 March 8,997 450 Thursday 2 April 19,662 983 Monday 6 April 33,050 1652 Friday 10 April 45,084 2254 Source: COVID-19 in Australia projections by Stefan von Imhof If 5 per cent were left in a critical condition, that would mean 250,000 Australians would need the 2,229 ICU beds.
'People may occupy a bed for a week or more,' she told Daily Mail Australia.
Professor MacIntyre said that if the cases were spread out evenly then ICU units would manage - but that is not what the hockey-stick graph predicted.
'Epidemic diseases surge, rather than spread evenly, so it's likely at some point we may exceed capacity,' she said.
'This is why it is so important to use maximal social distancing measures now, to reduce the peak and spread the disease burden out.
TOP DOCTORS BEG SCOTT MORRISON TO PUT AUSTRALIA INTO LOCKDOWN
Sydney neurologist Dr Kate Ahmad is among a group of leading Australian doctors to call for a full escalation of the country's lockdown to stem the coronavirus pandemic
Some of Australia's leading medical experts have called for a full escalation of the country's lockdown to stop the spread of thecoronavirusbefore it's too late.
Prime MinisterScott Morrisonordered a series of draconian measures from midday on Monday including the closure of bars, cafes and restaurants.
But as the national number of cases surged past 1,700 on Monday evening, top doctors from across Australia called on Mr Morrison to close schools and place the country into total lockdown.
As part of a joint video message, Sydney neurologist Dr Kate Ahmad said she was 'terrified' the rapidly increasing case count could overwhelm the country's health system.
The number of infections in Australia has more than doubled in the space of four days from 710 last Thursday to 1,716 on Monday.
'I am terrified the increasing number of cases are going to overwhelm our hospitals and we are going to have to make terrible triage decisions and we are not going to get the care we need,' Dr Ahmad said.
Doctor's plea to place Australia into lockdown due to COVID-19'I've been a doctor for 35 years and I'm scared,' associate professor David Allen added.
Their comments were echoed by the Western Australian president of the Australian Medical Association Andrew Miller.
'I'm calling on the government to jump on the breaks. We want them to impose lockdown until we have this under control,' he said.
The editor of the Medical Journal of Australia Nick Talley meanwhile said more had to be done by the government to stem the virus' spread.
Front line health workers are also being put at risk by the lack of a shutdown, the chair of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists warned.
'All non-essential services should be shut down now, we ask governments of all persuasions to act now,' Dr Angelo Virgona said in the video uploaded on Sunday.
'The spread of this virus is going to lead to a catastrophe for health workers who are on the front line and we need to protect them.'
