re: valuation = 4$ using 38.79us$ per barrel BTW my valuation of 2$ per share assumes the price of oil is 29.5US$ per barrel (Macquarie's assumption) and profit per barrel is 7.5US$.
If I use for example, December 2009 oil futures price of 38.79US$ per barrel and profit per barrel = 16.79US$ then my valuation becomes as follows:
Cash = 0.537392431
Chinguetti = 0.795530385
Tevet = 0.753660365
Tiof (unrisked) = 2.637811276
Tiof (risked using chance of success = 0.75) = 1.978358457
Cash + Chinguetti + Tevet = 2.09$ per share
Cash + Chinguetti + Tevet + Tiof (unrisked) = 4.72$ per share
Cash + Chinguetti + Tevet + Tiof (risked) = 4.06$ per share
Note that this is not even taking into account any of the other prospects, i.e. no blue sky factored in to this valuation except for Tiof which has been moving closer to success.
If Tiof is a go-ahead then it's just a matter of waiting. Declaration of commerciality of Tiof I think will be the significant event, and as long as the oil price is over 30US$ when Chinguetti and Tiof are online then we will all be very happy.
HDR
hardman resources limited
