we only need to flow 300 bopd to be commercial

The variables here are enormous and one has to decide how far back to bring to book the various costs, ie the cost of seismic, cost of studies, cost of drilling first well, cost of drilling second re-entry, completion and finally the biggest variable, how big is the field.

In essence the BOPD is only one parameter to consider and we really do not know until CTP have finished drilling, completing, testing and analysing the oil quantity and quality that they can say.

However, I should think that if CTP wrote off the cost of drilling overall, any oil flow above 100 BOPD would probably be commercial if it continued out for at least say 5 years cumulative production at that particular average rate. Another big factor is where we sell it, to Santos at Mereenie 200km away for a cut-throat price, or to a more generous buyer at Port Darwin?

Guessing games here so far but I think they would want to see in excess of 300 BOPD to justify the cost of the initial drilling plus the re-entry, depending on how much reserves CTP end up having and how long CTP could produce at that average rate.

It is likely to be higher initially and then drift back over the years as the oil pressure/flow rates reduce and maybe even have water cut issues to contend.

These are 'very' speculative educated guesses here and not to be construed as a financial forecast or a serious estimate, as I am no oil & gas expert.

Happy to hear the thoughts of people who work in the industry like PSI etc

Time will tell but my gut feeling says we have a good shot at it!

:-)
DamianWRX
PS: Merry Xmas to all CTP shareholders and their families.