I wasn't planning on posting here today, however, an impromptu...

I wasn't planning on posting here today, however, an impromptu update may be called for, as it is looking increasingly likely that the Californian almond growers might be facing some bloom-time complications over the next 48 hours.

Long-term holders might recall the Californian almond bloom of 2018, when a bitter cold spell during the pollination period battered almond trees that had blossomed earlier than normal as a result of unusually warm winter temperatures.

Judging by the current weather forecasts, it looks as if many Californian growers are in line for a very similar situation over the days ahead.

The critical days look to be the 24th and the 25th. Some of the major almond-growing counties in the south of the Central Valley, such as Fresno and Kern, don't look as if they will be impacted. On the other hand, growers in the major almond growing county of Stanislaus might be in for sleepless nights later this week, with the current forecast for Modesto indicating that the temperatures will dip as low as -4°C in the early hours of Thursday, and as low as -3°C on Friday.

The extent of frost damage depends on multiple factors, not least on whether or not the farmer has implemented systems to mitigate frost damage. Most almond growers would have measures in place to counteract the impact of untimely frosts, such as frost-fans or anti-frost sprinkler systems. However when temperatures start to dip below 2 degrees, even orchards with protective measures in place can be at risk.

Stanislaus is the third-largest almond growing county at current, and so the impact could have a material impact on the Californian almond crop if the forecast sub-zero temperatures eventuate.

Of course, the most vulnerable almond growing regions are probably the the smaller counties further to the north.

Weather forecast data on some of these areas is a little bit patchy, however Yuba City, the largest city in Yuba county, is expected to get hit by -4°C temperatures in the early hours of Thursday and Friday, and -3°C on Saturday. The temperature forecast for the city of Sacramento is only slightly less extreme. I'd assume that a number of the northern counties even further to the north, such as Butte, Glenn and Tehama countries could be in for some similarly harsh conditions.

While the situation is reminiscent of the bloom-time frosts of 2018, there is a possiblity that the impact of frosts this year could be worse.

One other factor influencing the severity of frost damage is the developmental stage of the bloom-time trees when the cold temperatures hit. Dormant trees are most resistant to frost, but when flowers start to form around early-to-mid February, they become more vulnerable, however, it is when the early-stage nuts begin to form that sub-zero temperatures pose the greatest risk.

In 2018, the bloom started 3-4 days early, and the first night that sub-zero conditons were experienced was on the 20th of February. However, this year it looks like the sub-zero conditions will arrive some four days later, and it also seems that the bloom commenced earlier this year than in 2018: The last Blue Diamond bloom update quoted one almond farmer based in Glenn county, who states that “Our bloom was about 5-7 days earlier than last year, but the bees were ready.”

So it appears as if the bloom commenced a few days earlier than in 2018, and this year it looks like the frosty conditions will be arriving a few days later. Thus, the chilly conditions are set to hit at a later stage in the bloom, and thus more trees will be more vulnerable.

All up, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the temperatures in the Californian almond growing regions over the next few days, as if the temperatures prove to be as frigid as are currently forecast, that would likely pose a risk to the crop, and this would have a bearing on the almond price.

The 'red line' generally seems to be about -1.5°C: once temperatures fall below -1.5°C, it is likely that there will be some light damage to any proto-nuts that have formed, assuming the farmer has no protective measures in place.

However, trees at the full bloom or pink bud stage would not be impacted at these temperatures.When temperatures fall below negative 2°C, early-stage nuts are likely to experience severe frost damage in unprotected orchards, and some varieties of almond trees at the 'bloom' stage might also be impacted by frost damage.

When temperatures fall to -3°C, almond growers would be looking at major damage, both to the nutlets that have just formed and to the buds that have progressed into the bloom stage. Even those farmers who have frost prevention measures in place are likely to suffer some crop losses when the temperature drops to -3°C or less.

We need to wait and see if the projected sub-zero temperatures in California prove to be in any way accurate, but if temperatures do drop below -2°C in a number of almond growing regions, such conditions could potentially have a significant impact on the 2022 crop.

Bear in mind that the almond trees in California are under considerable stress already, having endured two years of below average rainfall. It isn't impossible that they might be in for another dry year, depending on the precipitation levels in the next few months. This of course is another important weather-related factor to keep an eye on over the weeks ahead.