here is the full report of this analysis:
We don't want to ruin investors' day but there's a report on the
Timesonline website which will, ah, interest them:
Conditions in the financial markets are eerily similar to those
that precipitated the "Black Monday" stock market crash of October 1987,
according to leading City analysts.
A report by Barclays Capital says the run-up to the 1987 crash
was characterised by a widening US current-account deficit, weak dollar,
fears of rising inflation, a fading boom in American house prices, and
the appointment of a new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.
All have been happening in recent months, with market nerves on
edge last week over fears of higher inflation and a tumbling dollar, and
the perception of mixed messages on interest rates from Ben Bernanke,
the new Fed chairman.
"We are very uncomfortable about predicting financial crises,
but we cannot help but see a certain similarity between the current
economic and market conditions and the environment that led to the
stock-market crash of October 1987," said David Woo, head of global
foreign-exchange strategy at Barclays Capital.
Apart from the similarities in economic conditions, during the
run-up to the 1987 crash there was a sharp rise in share prices
worldwide and weakness in bond markets, Woo pointed out.
"Market patterns leading to the crash of 1987 resemble the
markets today," he said.
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