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05/08/18
09:15
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Originally posted by goldbear77
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@pygmyhippo
-the caveat was 3 yrs from sales commencing at each distributor from memory. That was part of what troubled me when i saw a few sales provinces being quietly rolled back
Currently the 69.3 is over more like ~4 yrs from end 2017 - given the right slide and other distributor specific rollbacks
- no one said the co is disappearing or under immediate financial duress
The distinction is between qtr on qtr new sales growth (ie how easy is it to find new buyers) - vs total sales revenue - which is what your numbers are about.
If all fees are recurring - i make 150k one qtr and 420k next qtr - then i made 120k in new sales
Ie my new sales growth was negative if 150k was all new sales.
New sales fell 30k from 150 to 120
Speed/ease of finding new sales is the driver of how market prices tech stocks - it tells you a fair bit about how naturally compelling the offering is
For bud - given they said they are getting +50% conversion rates - the rate of new sales then also tells you a rough idea of how many trials are being done
And for bud its particularly important because of its massive shotgun
Ie its paying higher wages bill and marketing than its peers + the higher incentives required by intermediaries - to achieve rapid rollout
Such approaches demand high new sales growth to payoff - though i dont think early stage comps are divine writ
Need bigger sample sizes
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Thanks @goldbear77 , yes, bigger sample sizes and actual Ohm data would be good.
Without numbers it's a bit like being blindfolded and holding an animal's tail in your hand and trying to figure out if it's an elephant or a goat.
Note to self for future reference: if it smells like a goat and starts eating paper money out of your pocket, it's probably a goat.