hi guys,
been just watching the WEB forum for a while now. here's my two cents on a super rough valuation if anyone is keen on a read.
just as a disclaimer - I am no financial genius whatsoever.
I just used the 2019 FY numbers and shrunk them down based on expected revenue volume due to COVID travel restrictions. I made a target of normality in year 2024 which brings numbers back to where they are now. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball so DYOR and take this with a grain of salt.
The numbers from 2020-2024 are just ratios which I double checked with previous historical data which you can check out here: https://finbox.com/ASX:WEB/financials/income/statement
I forecasted these numbers to get an EPS value of 0.20 in 2024.
I then grew out the EPS by the historical average of 30% starting from 2024 which got me an EPS of 0.95 by year 2030 (10 years out from now). I do not know what will happen to the travel climate 10 years from now but 30% is a good start.
Then I just multiplied the Future EPS of 0.95 by the industry standard PE of 15 and got a future SP of $14. I then worked that back expecting a 15% CAGR of 15% to arrive at a current valuation of $3.50.
OBVIOUSLY this is not advice to tell you to buy or sell.
Even if I apply the current PE of 8 (as Webjet potentially has taken a massive earnings hit) I will arrive at a sticker price of circa
$2.10.
DYOR. I have done mine
plus more.I am long term investor and believe in the capabilities of the webjet management and product proposition. Your investment time horizon may be different from mine so I don't mind if you chuck shade at me. Otherwise GLTAH.
(20min delay)