Crowd behaviour and sentiment is a fascinating topic. There is...

Crowd behaviour and sentiment is a fascinating topic. There is an enthralling dynamic at play here. Most of us are sitting at home, with more time to watch the news and worry about the future, than ever. We are seeing overflowing hospitals and overwhelmed health care workers, and ice-rinks turned to morgues, in countries that we do not normally associate with those sorts of things. Most of us are also worrying about how society will function going forward, and even whether or not we will have a job to go back to. We are worried for our elderly loved ones, as well. These are all very legitimate concerns.

So we sit there, at home, worrying about all that, and yet we see the market continuing to creep up. So we conclude that the market must be optimistic. What we forget, is that the market is not some abstract concept, nor is it the man-on-the-moon - it is us. It is doing what it is doing despite the way that we all feel.

So the real question is not whether or not there is 'optimism in the market' - it is, what would the market be doing if we all felt differently?

And then the question is, is the future likely to be different from what our current feelings imply?

I don't know the answer to the second question. I do know we all have reason to be concerned and that when we are in the eye-of-the-storm we tend to find it difficult to see beyond current circumstances. It's human nature. So much as things may turn out every bit as bad as we currently feel - or even worse, I think the negatives are far more likely to be embedded in current prices than any positives.

But nothing is certain.

All the best to you too.