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woomp001

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24/07/20

08:03

Post #: 46050493
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Originally posted by prawn_man: ↑

Amigo, I can understand your perspective, but just for a little while look at another possibility. In biological evolution every so often there is a massive phenomenon (eg earthquake, eruption, fire, etc) that causes huge mortalities and it causes a "bottle neck" in survival. Only a few individuals and species get through the phenomenon. But suddenly the survivors find that have very few competitors and plenty of resources laying around. Australian businesses and workers may be on the verge of an equivalent to that right now (probably the same in other countries). As a result, the businesses and workes will be crunch but some will get through it because of their skills, tenacity, luck, etc. Those survivors may have massive opportunities on the other side. And with regards to the sharemarket, share indexes do not worry about businesses going bankrupt (there will be a new business to take its place or an existing business that expands to fill the space). And the ASX or the ASX 200 may hardly blink. In short, not every business will collapse in this pandemic, some will thrive with new services or imaginative products. Simialrly, workers with needed skills may do very well. Innovation and creativity may the key? It's a cruel fact of life for species in biology as well as for humans in business and in the workforce. After almost 30 years of expansion, there is probably plenty of zombie business that will fall and plenty of workers with unnecessary skills that will also fall. Unfortunately, it is a very hard world and many are going to feel the pain (probably including me!). So what can anyone do? If I was a young person with a reasonably safe job, I'd take the 2.3 % fixed interest loan and buy my first home. If I was an entrepeneur with a good business model, I'd take the loan at low interest rates and build the business. These strategies are the opposite to those you are advocating. So maybe I am mad which means you shouldn't listen to me. (Now for some relevant trivia - Which industry had the most highly paid workers and was amongst the most profitable for decades afterwards because of the Great Depression? The movie film industry with their film crews and actors.)

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I see your point also.. Creative destruction is actually a desirable thing for sure, painful as it might be at the time! Like the refiners fire.. its actually a good thing.

But the XJO won't be at 6K when inevitably what you describe happens...

And houses will get cheaper also... I rates will be locked here for the next decade at least.. I think Japan offers the best example, of the most likely path forward for a while here... So I'd wait a bit to see how things settle down a bit before borrowing a few mil to but some tiny apartment or cottage in one of our 2 big cities...

I think its just the degree of the contraction and pain that is in question now, not whether we do or don't..

As a younger guy, personally for sure I see endless opportunities... I also can only see huge pain for the western world looming in general.

XJO Value at posting: 6,094.5
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