The last 3 dips to the bottom of your channel were roughly 3...

The last 3 dips to the bottom of your channel were roughly 3 years apart so I'd see I higher probability of the next fall being closer to the end of next year. I don't consider this recent fall is the start of something much bigger. Yes, it could go further to around 10% from the peak but as it doesn't look as if the corona virus death rate like say the Spanish Flu, I still see higher prices in the medium term once the initial panic subsides.