XJO 0.76% 7,981.7 s&p/asx 200

I would have thought that role of QE in stimulating the "real"...

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    I would have thought that role of QE in stimulating the "real" economy had been pretty much discredited. QE as practised by the US involves the central bank creating money to buy dubious assets from financial institutions so as to stop them going bust. The hope was that the banks would use this cash to lend to actors in the real economy. This, of course, did not happen.

    What did happen is that banks used the cash to buy assets such as company shares - thus nudging prices higher during the recovery.

    In the case of the RBA it will be purchasing bonds, thus pressing bond prices higher (therefore rates lower). The hope is that banks will be encouraged to lend. This is naive - interest rates are low and no one is going to be persuaded to take out a loan just because the interest rate has fallen by, say, 0.05%. But the holders of bonds, like financial institutions, will be happy as their asset will appreciate in value.

    Bottom line is that any stimulation of the real economy is a second order affect, if at all.

    However, money to the punters results in the direct injection of money into the real economy. Unfortunately, most central banks have an agreement with the international bank of settlements to only deal with financial institutions and not give money. to governments. So most of the stimulus (RBA buying bonds) does nothing for the real economy and the bit that does has to come of the government budget which us punters will be paying for some time to come (although lets not go overboard getting concerned because the debt/GDP is still low).

    Another discredited idea is that "printing money" causes inflation. Us punters are meant to calculate that because QE has added 10% more money into the economy, we will regard the money as being worth 10% less and expect to pay 10% more. The US, UK, Euro have printed many trillions of dollars/pounds/euros with absolutely no effect on inflation. One (of many) factor that changes prices is demand vs supply. When an economy gets overheated demand exceeds supply and guess what - the prices rise. I don't think we are going to be experiencing that for some time yet!

 
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