wednesday rebound, page-87

Volt in summary can you outline your potential turn around dates (maybe the more major ones not a one-two day scenario).

The reason i ask this is i was pondering the current level of bad news in the system.
As markets drop on bad news flows, the market starts to predict more and more D&G. The market is looking for a reason to go up, but there is absolutetly nothing out there to give it a spark.

However with the markets down so much and news flow so bad, we just need some half decent indirect news and the market may well grab it with open arms.

I remember recalling US GDP figures (cant remember whether this was 3rd qtr or estimated 4th qtr) were inflated by a build up in business inventory, ie they would have been worse if not for a inventory build up.
Now what happens when inventory builds up, businesses stop ordering to offload the build up.
Now what do we see as racing headlines: Japan exports down 50% in January.
So we see confirmation of US businesses cutting their inventory (we know US consumer retail sales are not down 50%, so its a reduction in US business inventory).

So in my opinion we are probably within a couple of months of some good news flows (and in this market good news can sometimes just be a translation of less bad news).

With a big drop in December and a 50% drop in January, business inventory levels must be approaching 'minimal' recessionary levels, hence we should see either rises or lower level drops in the future (coupled with lower YEN exchange rates)