wednesday sharing cranker, page-7

Here’s an example of how the financial press in America is obsessed with the FISCAL-CLIFF. The following is the lead-in from MarketWatch web-site (a division of The Wall Street Journal).

The web-site now has a second by second count-down to the CLIFF. Now that’s playing on fear – and fear sells – and moves markets. The best thing that can be said about this: at least its not a count down to End of the World Apocalypse predicted for 21 December, 2012, the Mayan End Times. :) Meanwhile, back at the ranch, good news about Greece and consumer confidence was ignored. If the market had rallied, those good news stories would have been “blamed”. Or – maybe – it’s all due to the arrival of the next Full Moon. It’s due 28 November, oops, that’s today.

All this reminds me of the Y2K problem. Remember that back in 2000? It passed away, too, without a whimper.

In America:

SP500 -0.55%
Dow Industrials -0.7%
Nasdaq100 -0.4%
Dow Transports -0.16%
Russell 2000 -0.16%

Comment: The SP500 was a actually up a little early in the afternoon. Then the Democratic head of the Senate made some noise about little progress on the CLIFF, and some big shot on Wall Street hit the market with a big sell order sending the market into a blue funk. And it didn’t recover. The SP500 chart shows today was an inside day. The Dow Industrials chart is less sanguine. It looks more like a three day reversal pattern. It would be more convincing if today’s candle was a bit longer. Today and Monday are still within the range of Friday’s big up day, so all is not lost.

NewHighs/NewLows 98/13. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 88.3%. Despite the CLIFF the ratio remains in the Do Not Sell Zone. New Lows are benign.

Technical Comment on the SP500:

The SP500 finished at 1398.94. Support/resistance: 1365/1418.65.
MACD Histogram. Above zero. Positive. The “take profits” signal yesterday for short tremors was confirmed today
MACD. Marginally above zero. Neutral.
RSI.9 is at 52.9. Positive. But dropping back from above 60.
Stochastic. 69.5. Positive.
CCI.14: +96.5. Above zero, positive.

Four Momentum Indicators remain in positive territory.

Chaikin Money Flow (bottom pane) has just above its zero line but is still in neutral territory between -0.05 and +0.05.

The Index has now had two days down. A third is likely. If the pull back remains relatively benign, as it is now, then a break above near term resistances is on the cards.

Near term resistance is, however, formidable. Firstly, the neckline of the complex head and shoulders has, so far, held. Then there’s the horizontal S/R at 1419, plus the 40-Day TMA. Those collectively make a tough nut to crack. If the chart can push up higher above those, then the Santa Rally is in full flight. I still think we might have to wait a day or three.

Let’s see how it goes.

Redbacka.