wednesday wobbles, page-29

So how long is a bear market?

No, not like a piece of string.

12 to 14 months is common and not surprising given Armstrong's legs of 392 cal days or 12 months 27 days.

Examples are the 1937/8, 1973/4 and even our 2002/3 declines etc.

My feeling is the US markets have already started a bear and this time next year seems likely as a low.

Housing data with its 12 month lag and Chinese repeating action of last decade and even BHP's past record agree.

I envisaged next March as the low and maybe it is, but I am now open to a later possiblity.