that's hard to say....personally I think you need to take it as...

that's hard to say....personally I think you need to take it as it comes and see what emerges on the chart. Perhaps the best guide is history. the 2 bears I have studied most are the 70s and the 30s. 73/74 took 2 years to do what we have done in 1.....it then went into a bull till 77 making a new high and then another bear not as bad as the last......that would mean in todays terms about mid 2009 we start a bull that will exceed DOW 14200 within a few years.

The other comparison is 1937 and sadly I think this bear is more like that. It took 387 cal days to fall 49% so, assuming an end to this leg soonish, this bear is more like that. It then rallied to a level equivalent to mid 11000s (i think from memory without looking it up) but then another bear followed which would be equivalent to a new low of DOW 6700 by late 2012.

Robbbb may be able to give you some comparisons to the 1907 bear which seems to be his favourite.