wednesday's road map, page-2

Looks like we don't have a cranker today.

Acouch - I reckon you deserve the right to have a cranker - short, pithy and modest as always.

In America:

Dow Industrials -0.59%
Dow Transports -0.21%
SP500 -0.43%
Russell 2000 -0.09%
Nasdaq100 -0.36%

Comment: The Dow 30 (and other indices) had a nice reversal last night. Down strongly early, it reversed to be down only -0.59% on heavier volume. At this stage, I wouldn’t read too much into that – it needs a confirmation day up. Back in the waterfall that occurred in July/August, 2011, two such reversals occurred. They looked even better than this one. And the market continued on down. Take care thinking this marks the end of the pull-back.

NewHighs/NewLows 58/77. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 43%. The Ratio has fallen out of the “Do Not Sell” Zone above 80. The New Low figure is in the “panic sell” zone.

Technical Comment on the Dow 30:

The Dow finished at 12932.1. Support in round numbers is at 12770. Resistance 13300. The Index is in No Man’s Land.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 31.7. Falling. Negative.
RSI.9 is at 37.4. Oversold.
MACD Histogram. Below zero. Negative.
MACD. Marginally below zero. Neutral.
CCI.14: -111.4. Oversold.

The 10-DayEMA is above the 20-DayEMA. Positive. But both have turned down. That’s a negative.

The momentum indicators are generally negative and have room to move lower. A couple have moved marginally into oversold readings, but can go much lower yet.

The long term trend is up. The medium term trend is sideways. The short term trend is down.

No idea about tomorrow. A big up day tonight and this pull-back is over. But don’t bet on it.

Today in Australia? Last night I said I thought we’d continue in “breather” mode. I think that’s still the probability; i.e., a relatively narrow range day perhaps, once again, on the positive side. A big up day today on our market would cancel the bearish mood I’m in. I’ll be surprised if we get that.

Redbacka.