Good morning all, there's a few sick canaries out there this...

Good morning all, there's a few sick canaries out there this morning, probably choking on all that climategate. But is the USD really fooling anybody? it has no friend in the UC, and UJ might sell off the yen today - but the trends are hardly very supportive. Any USD strength would come from a weak EU ... again. So where can money go? someone's looking for a new safehaven me thinks. With the USD pegged to the China Yuan and Chinese industry, US is depending on it to steady the industrial ships. Can China keep pulling it off?

Knowing a little bit about coal and iron ore prices being high, we can deduce volumes from our trade data have actually been decreasing since the 2008 trade peaks. expect volumes to increase on falling prices to counter any price trend 'if' the SSEC and NIKK indexes pick up to continue the recovery. There is enough available liquidity to fund it all.

Copper disappointed last night and could be breaking down a larger top forming since 03Jan2011. An inflation adjusted copper medium price is around $6500 ($2.95/lb) so any slowdown could have a real impact on copper prices, less so with gold. Copper below $4.40 would be an issue.

Deflation is the concern, but for how long? Interest rates will go lower to encourage things to pick up if it persists, and a Jan/Feb trade deficit might be an unwelcome surprise. Hence the AU sell off that might be about to start.

Thinking positive, this might just be Mar2005 all over again. A small sojourn on the way back up - meaning China and Europe to me. If long trades fail, wait a little while for confirmation before jumping in would be safe thinking.

The next month might start to see the first Hindenberg call, but things are still fairly robust, and speculative funding is only getting cheaper. Which is funny, with the US criticising everyone else for being speculators and currency manipulators.

Big money could just be waiting for the US to conquer, sorry, sorry - secure, another part of the world. If GDP's fail to ignite, then many commodity prices have a good distance to fall.

But canaries have been singing about these things for a while. It will come down to speculation ramping back up.