Weebit - 2021and beyond, page-9170

On a serious note, I have been reflecting on the recent share price deterioration of WBT and what it means for my investment thesis.

Firstly I’m going to put aside the current macro influences of the US debt ceiling crisis and the market concerns of an Evergrande default. The reason is that these issues impact market wide and therefore will impact on WBT no more or no less than they will impact any company share price.

Therefore, are there any business specific issues that have driven the price drop? My answer is no and in fact the progress achieved by the company towards its stated goals has been only positive. Let’s remind ourselves of the most recent milestones:

- extended the R&D partnership with CEA-Leti
- demonstrated the first ever ovonic threshold selector to operate with a ReRam memory cell
- taped out a fully operational memory module
- signed their first commercial agreement to achieve volume production.

Where are we at now then:
- upfront license fees and royalties from SKYT
- open door for multiple commercial agreements from SKYT customers or WBT customers
- SKYT can use WBT tech in other projects it is currently running
- potential agreements with other fab / foundry.

So surely this should result in price increase and not price decrease. So why the fall in price? Simply put I don’t believe there is any fundamental or technical reason for the price fall. I think it is a reflection of the fears and doubts of emotional investors for the following reasons:
- the time horizon required to complete the fab qualification
- the fact that the qualification process must be completed before we transition to any volume production for a paying customer
- traders / investors deciding that maybe funds can exit WBT, be employed somewhere else and rejoin The WBT register at a later time
- the risk that the qualification process fails.

So should I follow the crowd, sell now and buy back later? I won’t be doing that for some simple reasons:
- avoiding CGT impact
- the likely schedule of technical news flow
- the potential for new customer announcements before completion of qualification
- potential for announcement of second fab commercial agreement.

Essentially I’m focusing on the business achievements of the company rather than the share price ups and downs…