@dave2016great article / accurate current appraisal of operations and technology / revenue projection forecasts
I agree that it's almost time to 'bottom fish' shares in the company (Skywater)......but not quite yet
they are uniquely placed to generate sales across their building technology chain value segments ( including DARPA contracts)
and of course Weebit nvm reram is a significant part of that equation to leverage new technology 'on shore' in the US and globally... as was the recent 'packaging' announcement....also onshore
(DP and CH would have completed their DD in this regard.... as would the entire board / s of all concerned - the nature of the agreement in some ways highlights the underlying understanding of what was needed for the long term vision to become a reality....but this is my opinion on that only )
combine this with Skywater targeting the sweet spot nodes of 130nm / 90nm / 65nm is also key as these are the critical product nodes where demand delirium is at its peak .....including the auto segment as we know....the legacy nodes as they are known.
shelling out up front costs to upgrade old 'cypress lines' and set in train the 5 to 10 yr strategy on the back of the R&D technology developments and offerings to transition to tier 1 status is their 'green field' vision and operating losses are to be expected....and required if expansion along the vision timeline is to be achieved.
they don't have depreciated assets on new fab spend ( though I suspect that may only be 12 to 18 months away) as they divested from 'cypress'.... as the analysis you posted correctly points out so operating losses were always expected
in this scenario Skywater is gaming on a play to realise solid returns over the long term ......customer driven commitments to 'buy in' and innovate with what the company and its partners are delivering to achieve reduced capital costs and increase revenue / improved margin and profitability......if it turns out to be a winning strategy it may well lead to some of those customers co funding through negotiated agreements to co-invest in fab building on the return of high utilisation for that customer in that facility....and there is that depreciation value on new fab investment down the track
....
potentially with some shall we say 'interesting' partner potential.....some of whom already have an exceptional BOD and technical team who may well see the opportunity in this regard ....hint hint... ( my speculation only but to be key chip reram supplier in the US with fab investment and agreed majority interest utilisation in that facility certainly is a tasty proposition going forward - if some years away yet)
this scenario is standard with tier 2 and 3 operations as they gear to expand.....
yep...nearly time to mud in on those Skywater shares....exciting times
(20min delay)