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hi @Surfguy.At the Sydney agm, Coby mentioned the predicted...

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kareela1971

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17/01/23

08:38

Post #: 65725039
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Originally posted by Surfguy: ↑

Love your enthusiasm and looks like plenty love those figures.
They may be a tad out though and we don't need confusion as many new investors come aboard.
That Yole report is problematic IMO.
As a student of Toni Seba I take these research analysts report with a large does of scepticism. These people use linear projections when disruption is clearly exponential.
To emphasise my point they predict MRAM to increase at the same rate as ReRam keeping its market share from 2024- 2027. That is a crock as it adds 20-40% cost to wafers to ReRam's 5-6% and its security re hacking is poor. MRAM is no chance in 2027.
Worse is the $3bill total market. The Flash NVM market size was $60bill last yr with NOR 25% of that. It is the fastest growing segment so by 2027 the predictions are for >$100bill overall Flash NVM.
The low hanging fruit WBT is targeting, NOR, @ 25% minimum of that so $25bill. This is a disruption and a tech one at that so will be fast. By 2027 anyone producing NOR flash is going broke.
By 2027 WBT should be attacking NAND flash with its discrete NVM ReRam.
Given this I prefer to ignore the Yole Report in favour of disruption so $25-30bill in 2027 I believe is closer to the mark. I also don't see anyone but TSMC and WBT in this disruption. First to market in disruptions usually wins the lions share. Let's say its 40% TSMC and WBT each to allow for others.
WBT may also be produced by TSMC so we may end up well over 50% share. Let's call that $10 to $15bill as market share for WBT.
Our revenue model though is royalties which is were you have made a mistake. Yole $1bill revenue by 2027 will not be all going to WBT and of the estimated $400mill(40%) revenue WBT's share is approx 2.5%. That is just $10mill @ pe50 is only $500mill MCap.
At total disruption of MRAM Yole report means $3bill total revenue, so its 3x the $500mill MCap or $1.5 bill. Pick your preferred PE ratio to go up or down from here. Not so good now is it.
However if total disruption of NOR flash happens around 2027 and the market is far bigger for ReRAM than predicted lets go 50% share of $30bill so $15bill at 2.5% is $375mill at a PE of 30 being conservative gives a MCap of $11bill. Now that's more like it.
New Investors this is a disruption and a super disruption at that IMO. Flash NVM has no chance of surviving. If you want to learn about disruption and exponential growth search out Toni Seba at ReThink X. You will learn so damn much and when you study it you start to see disruption everywhere. You will also never trust a research analysts report ever again because they all extrapolate linearly not exponentially.
Hope this helps and please do the numbers as I could be out. Last Sept's Gilder report on WBT website under the Invertor tab and Analyst's Reports has all this info and is one of the best reads on WBT.

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hi @Surfguy.
At the Sydney agm, Coby mentioned the predicted $2.97b revenue of reram forecast by Yole was based on revenue as royalties (ie not for production costs / sales)
At least, that’s how I heard him.?
So my $1b was based on wbt attracting only approx 30%.
Happy to stand corrected though

WBT Price at posting: $4.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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