week of may 6th, page-2

Hi guys Here Is my weekly Analysis for the AUDUSD,
I do this every week on the Pairs I'm closely watching.
Mainly the EUR and AUS
Just figured how to put in on here,
Feel free to read or give feedback I don't mind.



AUDUSD 5 May 2013
AUDUSD5 May 2013 Monthly Trend: Flat Monthly Bias: None
Comments:
Monthly chart is interesting as clearly shows a pennant formation or symmetrical triangle with price action reaching the point of needing a breakout. Looking at the background we see price has moved p bullishly from around 59c to about 1.1000 area. Then has begun the triangle formation a breakout to the up side may see the bottom line form the lower channel for another move north and for a break lower the opposite would be possible for a short term target of around .96c. until this level is broken we can only assume a retracement of the upmove is underway. When broken a bias to the bearish side would need to be taken. Need to wait and see. Stochastic Looks to be favoring the bull side of the market
Chart:

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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
AUDUSD, 5 May 2013.
Weekly Bias: Up
Weekly Trend: Ranging Up (higher low made in the range)
Comments:
An attempt to break the triangle to the upside failed upon the constraints of the top of the range at around the 1.05988/.06000 level followed by a long bearish engulfing candle. Only to form a higher low and form support with a spinning tom then reversal to the upside, however candle is not closed so we can only analyze closed candles. Having respected the triangles bottom line price action is taking an early turn. Stochastic is suggesting more downside though however if price action holds within the constraints of the triangle and stochastic turns deep in the over sold territory it may show more confirmation of a breakout to the up side with a med term target of the 1.04750 level with a close above the 1.0600 level will almost be confirmation we will see 1.0800 sooner rather than later.
Weekly Chart:

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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
Daily Trend: Down
Comments:
AUD daily time frame leaves room to analyze and look for the shorter term movements in the market while our longer time frame patterns are being constructed.
Here we would assume that Fridays price action can only be classed as retracement until the key areas on the 4hrly have been broken as the momentum belongs to the bears. After a steep move down from around the 1.05800 level we have seen an initial retracement to the 50% fib of the run down, then another bearish candle. Support has been found at the confluent previous sup at around the minor psych level of 1.02200 forming a double bottom at this level closing on the highs only on diminishing volume though which is the only worrying sign for this could be hunt for the stops. Only the lower time frames can be seen to find where the targets are to be broken to bring analysis in line with the weekly and Monthly bullish bias.
Chart:
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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
4hrly Trend: Up
4 hrly Bias: Retracement
Comments:
4 hourly time frame shows the fib from the recent move down from the 50% fib of the main initial move which will mean the bearish bias can only be erased once the top is taken out, until then it is classed as retracement. Price has recently been rejected from by the 61.8 retracement so far with what looks like a lot of head wind for the bulls to fight through. Having 61.8 retracement along with a convergence of 3 other factors including the confluent resistance from around the 25th April top, the upper trending down trend line and the lower sup (now res) lower up trending line all acting as resistance to a further advance. If a move through these and into the older trend channel was to occur I would be looking at possibly taking risky Long positions Due to the Double bottom and the overall ranging market conditions on the higher time frames, however weekly and Daily stochastic all signaling further moves down. Obviously the rates decision on Tuesday will play a fundamental part in this pair. 4hr stochastic is also moving into overbought territory.
Chart:
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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
1hr Trend: Down
1hr Bias: Retracement/ Short
Comments:
I have a short Bias for the 1 hour time frame as there seems to be some brick and mortar halting the up move for the AUD at these levels as spoken about on the 4hrly.
Stochastic is signaling a tired move up along with the 61.8 retracement and the upper down trending res line, as short term momentum is pushing up with a higher low from the 2nd to the 3rd May still see a little more to the up side with what I would max out at approx. the 1.03222 to the 1.03300 area; The red confluent res and the fib. All merging with the falling trend line.
Chart:

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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
Entry time frame
15min Trend: Up
15 Min Bias: Down
Comments:
Having topped out at the 61.8 fib belief is that the AUD may drift higher to the areas mentioned in the higher time frames. I believe the the factor of the rates decision may drive the market on Tuesday as to the markets direction for the medium term deciding weather to break out or continue on the downward momentum, reason being the Carry trade is what will be driving after the decision. Chinas data will also influence.
However since this is simply charting analysis I believe that technically speaking there are three entry’s here for the short side of possibility all to the short side as decided on the higher frames, with probably only one to the long side.
First a market sell order with stop above the 1.03300 level with a target of around the 1.02641 level may see a nice risk reward of about 2.5:1. Secondly an anticipation of a drif higher with an entry at around the 1.03211 level or the 1.03300 level with the same PT and a 20pip stop would increase the R:R to about the 3.1:1. And thirdly to the short side you could trade the downside breakout with an order at about 1.0300 and aim for the PT at low of about 1.02450 and a stop at 1.03250 less of a reward for the risk with a 2:1 (25 pip loss to a 50pip gain)
Trade:
My bias is the 2nd trade:
Short upon weakness at 1.03220 with 20 pip stop and a target of 1.02635 and a stop to BE after a break to the downside at 1.03000
Chart:

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AUDUSD 5 May 2013
Analysis!
As the retail sales data comes out in early week we may see a bit of volatility here, also the rates decision will be a major factor for the rest of the week and the decider on the future price action for the Medium term. As if rates are to be dropped the sell of will be large as the ‘carry trade’ will not be so attractive to investors! Having money flow from the AUD to other markets on news like this. Hoever if rates are held steady as forcast the speculators who are sitting on the side lines awaiting the decision should push the pair higher most likely through a minimum of two key resistance levels. A drop in rates may see the lower range broken with parity on the cards in the shorter to Medium term.