I have been struggling to reconcile the valuation with the...

I have been struggling to reconcile the valuation with the figures I keep getting. I suspect perhaps investors are worried about pull-forward demand for long duration products (such as linen) rather than seeing this for what it is - very significant market share gains in the expansion categories and online. Adairs are hiring at a mad pace right now, so it certainly seems like they at least have some confidence in the business moving forward.

My personal estimates are still of ~80-90m EBIT on 500m sales in FY21 with overseas expansion in FY22. That is still approximately a PE of 10 for a very very healthy business (especially given the higher cash conversion in the current accounting cycle). I can only assume that investors think that sales will be materially lower than this, but there is absolutely nothing I can see that suggests that will be the case (I mean the base is about 450m after Mocka and adding in the 2 months we know of this FY as well). Hopefully we will get some more details at the AGM, but there is almost no way that the Christmas period won’t be massive this year from
what I can tell (at least not in Victoria anyway) and then H2 cycles a weak March-April with store closures as well (unlike the e-commerce players).