Hi, been watching w/end trading for months & decided to dip my toe in the water to share some charts of XJO. I have been playing with TA for about 6 months & learnt heaps from this site!!! Better than all the books I have read IMO!
soooo I welcome all feedback ... no such thing as BAD feedback. all learning IMO
basically I am using TA to try and detect trends and to enter long term trades that catch the trend "The trend (really really ) is your friend"
First lets look at 10 years of xjo. see below.
My observations: For me this chart just confirms how a simple 10 & 30 ma can be effective at defining the trend; what sort of dick would have stayed in market after the 10 and 30 cross beginning 2008??? ... guilty as charged your honour ... thats why I am NOW interested in TA ... I do not know of any of the expert FA'ers (bankers, brokers, economists etc.) out there that called the market correction correctly ..... & if they did it was way to late.
I note also thatMACD was accurate at defining trends and the current down ward movement has price sitting right on 30 week MA; although good separation between 10&30 remains the 10 1ill turn down very quickly if weekness continues.
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next chart show 12 months weekly and the consolidation that has occurred for last 4-5 months .. also of interest to me is that we were at these levels not that long ago .. early Dec .. & yet IMO sentiment at the moment is a lot "shakier" than then. Probs difference between psychology of rising to a level vs falling to that level????
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I have spent lots of time trying to define trends, simple trend lines, channels etc & recently (inspired through the great work of totterdell91, thanks again) got very interested and been playing with pithforks ... love 'em .. amazing (uncanny??) ability to define trend channels & concept of median price appeals to me!! Lets look at the 2009n bull market. see daily chart below:
My observations: Note how bars surround med line initially (mar-july)& then when it "breaks" med line head straight up to upper tine. It has now broken the med line again on the down side ... does this signal a return to lower tine? About 4300?
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like the pitch forks so add a few more to help define the finer trends (love someone to feedback whether I am drawing them correctly?? Seeing pithforks everywhere on my charts. Even starting to dream about pichforks LOL!!!) Green is intermediate u/trend and blue recent d/t
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read mr guppys stuff and below we check some ema's against the trend ... for gmma fans I substituted the 40ema with the HC favourite pink 41 ema and added the 195, (not sure why but seems to be HC norm; any reason?? ... if its good enough for Robbbb good enough for me? LOL)
Observations: Not convinced on the gmma (others opinion??) however the 41ema has been breached and the 195 is looming!!! maybe as support??
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... finally also been taken by Master Robbbbs work on repeating ranges and time frames. I noticed how there has been a correctiion of similar magnitude about every 4 months starting fed 09 & similarly 2 uptrends of similar magnitude(see blue arrows below)... could we be forming the base of the next leg up??? If so it (coincidentally???) matches the upper tine of our overall uptrend p/fork at about 5400.
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So thats it for me ... i hope some peops bother to read this & I get some responses ..... although I am generally a LT holder thinking of making substantial (for me!!! All $$$$ from my SMSF + personal$$) exit from market in next week if the -ive scenarios above play out?
Hope I am on teh right track????
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