Ninelives, I think your analysis of the situation is spot on and we can expect oil to recover somewhat which will be a relief to the market.
I can find only one year where the XJO had a rally in Dec and a big selloff in Jan/Feb and that was 2010. I still think 2016 will playout the same as 2010 providing nothing major upsets the market.
The chart below has the remaining 2010 candlesticks (Mar, Apr...etc) copied to 2016. Expect the Feb candlestick to recover somewhat (and possibly go green) and the rally to continue into March. Then expect the usual May selloff to commence on April 1 and continue into May (this could be a vicious capitulation shakeout). Then expect a recovery to peak Sept/Oct. Expect the ASX to put in flat year for 2016 and the the DOW to deflate by about 5%.
(20min delay)