Weekend Charting and Chat. 21/11 Mar (aka Doom&Gloom)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxML2vdkvFo

In Australia yesterday:

XJO up +0.7%. In isolation that figure looks OK, but the long upper tail on the candle tells us that a lot of intra-day selling occurred - not OK. XJO was up >3% early in trading.

The chart shows a negative 50/200 MA x-over. That's a long term "sell" signal.

Strategy: "sell the rallies".

XJO Weekly Chart:

Four year's gains wiped out in one month. We're now down to a last ditch support level.

Markets have become manic. For example, VAP, ETF for boring old Real Estate, was up +11.28% yesterday.

I was browsing the Financial Review yesterday after going for my daily swim - and almost everything they said about our market (using Thursday's data) was wrong on Friday.

Fundamental Analysis can be thrown in the bin, as company after company refute previous advice to the market about forward estimates.

Classic Technical Analysis isn't much better, with indices slicing through every support level as they come due. Crazy stuff.

All of this is, of course, due to the coronavirus pandemic. The bright spot on the horizon is China where the epidemic now seems to have waned. South Korea, an early hot spot after China, is following a similar path.

Overnight:

The intra-day selling in Australia warned of a coming sell-off in America.

Dow Jones -4.55%. SP500 -4.34%. Nasdaq -3.79%. Small Caps -4.79%.

Volumes continue to increase.

CNN's Fear and Greed Index.

F&G remains in the Extreme Fear Section of the Index. That suggests we could see a rally.

But History (2018, 2019) also suggests that any rally will be sold into: