I don't normally post on a Friday night, but I have commitments this week-end which prevent me from attending to usual duties. So, for what it's worth, an unusual Friday Night Post.
XJO Daily:
The Daily Chart is in a sideways trend, oscillating around the 20-Day MA and a major horizontal S/R Level. CCI is below zero - that's a negative and usually the first indicator to show a bearish reading. DPO is just above its zero line, which puts it into a danger zone.
The relationship of the short term Stochastic (14.3.5) to the long term Stochastic (50.10.10) is bearish. The LT Stochastic BBs have narrowed down and are at the top of their range. That suggests a downside movement. The ST Stockastic hasn't been able to rise above the LT Stochastic - again that indicates a weakness and possible downside movement.
Until we get a decisive move to the downside, this remains a sideways trend, but the probabilities are for a downside break.
Here's the Weekly Sector Performance Chart:
XAO down modestly this week -0.32%.
Five out of ten sectors were up.
This week's sector performance was dominated by big differences between sectors largely as a result of Reporting to the ASX and ex-dividend effects. Consumer Staples (XSJ) was by far the best largely as a result of the performance of Woolworths +4.18%. Telecomms is dominated by Telstra which went ex-dividend this week, down -3.2%. But Vocus, which is a significant member of this sector was also down -4.76%. It has also fallen below its 200-Day MA and is thus disqualified from my Ten Top Stocks for this month.
This weekend sees the Central Bankers of the World meet at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, a picturesque spot near the Grand Tetons.
Most commentators are focussing on the fact that Janet Yellen will be a speaker at the conference and expect her to give some guidance on interest rates. Maybe she will, maybe she won't. She is still bound by the votes of her committee, the Federal Reserve. I don't think Yellen has the same sort of power in the Fed as Bernanke or Greenspan, so her ramblings are less likely to provide explicit direction on interest rates. I think the week-end **-fest will be a non-event as far as direction of our stock market is concerned.
I could easily be wrong. We'll see.
If the market goes down, I think it will be because it was ready to, not because of anything Yellen says.
There won't be the usual comprehensive Weekly Report this week.
(20min delay)