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LOL even my hubris does not extend to a 10-20yr forecast. Im...

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29/05/17

00:11

Post #: 24958620
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Originally posted by Propagandista ↑

Agreed. But the question is, does property go down 10-35% in the next five years, while the stock market drops more (50-60% from here) and the real estate bulls (again) are validated by a quick bounce back in property prices. From here I believe they'll (real estate bulls) have trouble recording gains, and the scenario you envisage, i.e. much much higher stock prices, will come in to play. I can think of other scenarios where real estate is flat or say -2% YoY for a long time without the crash scenario playing out and everything else catching up and flying past real estate (in terms of capital gains). Either way, I agree with your suggestion that the market will, in say 10-20 years be very expensive (and I mean that the AVG P/E or Cyclically Adjusted-P/E is at a much higher level in 10-20 years than it is at today).

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LOL even my hubris does not extend to a 10-20yr forecast.

Im talking about the next 12 months.

XJO Value at posting: 5,751.7
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