There has been a lot of analysis comparing the current decline...

There has been a lot of analysis comparing the current decline with very recent declines, but it might be useful to look back further in time.

Elliott Wave Theory works very well on the XAO/XJO over the longer time frames, but you need semilog charts to see it best.

Our two recent cycles, from beginning of wave 1 to the end of the final correction, went from:
Sep-74 to Nov-92 = 18.2 years
Nov-92 to Mar-09 = 16.3 years
... almost generational, which makes sense if you think about it.

Our current cycle has only been going for about 6 1/2 years, so should extend for a few more years yet.

3rd waves can be choppy and the easiest money is made in the 5th waves, providing you watch for the warning signs and sell EVERYTHING before the music stops.

Note that in both of the previous 3rd and 5th waves, the market gave warning penetrations of the uptrend before the final top was reached, even in 1987.

1974-1976 waves (1) & (2) ran 26 months, 1976-1981 wave (3) then ran 53 months and price extended 2.62*wave (1).
1992-1995 waves (1) & (2) ran 27 months, 1995-2002 wave (3) then ran 84 months and price extended 1.62*wave (1).
2009-2011 waves (1) & (2) ran 29 months, 2011-? wave (3) has run 48 months so far, but price has barely exceeded 1.0*wave (1).

The current uptrend looks intact and the recent China Stockmarket Crisis looks very similar to the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, so wave (3) should have further to run.

Then again, the current dire economic situation could mean that this is as good as it gets.



Toronto researchers who analyzed 51 studies on the links between body mass index and death from any cause found those categorized as underweight have the highest risk of a premature death.

Adults who are underweight (with a BMI of less than 18.5) have a 1.8 times higher risk of dying than those with a “normal” BMI of 18.5 to 24.9, the study found.

New studies are showing that people in the “overweight” range (a BMI of 25 to 30) have the highest life expectancy.

So skinny cantankerous  old guys who push themselves in the gym might just be heading for an early grave.