In America:
Last night we saw a process we've been accustomed to recently. Indices were well down near the opening, but bears had no strength to capitalise. Markets finished more or less flat.
DJ +0.01%, SP500 +0.05%, NYA +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.16%, Russell2000 -0.11%.
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SP500:
The last time SPX was at the top of the Standard Error Channel it went into a six weeks long sideways trend until it hit the low side of the SEC. We can now expect to see something similar or, perhaps, a sharp pull-back. A sideways consolidation can work off the overbought readings without there necessarily being a sharp pull-back. Given the strength of the "Trump Rally" that seems the most likely scenario.
(Note: The Principle of Alternation suggests otherwise, i.e., whatever happened last time, it will be different this time.)
VIX
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VIX had a big fall last night (bullish for stocks) - back below the 50-Day MA. Punters are once again happy with their lot.
Commodities:
US$ had a big fall last night -0.87%. Such an event usually has a big effect on commodities. It helped but not a lot.
DBC +0.51%. Industrial Metals +0.25%. Energy +0.55%. Gold -0.06%.
In Australia:
XJO fell heavily yesterday, -0.81%. It has stalled at the 13-Day MA.
XJO market has plenty of support below: 20-Day MA, Super Trend Line, Lower Edge of the Standard Error Channel and then the 65-Day MA. I doubt the 65-DMA will break. Even if all that fails, we'd be looking at major Horizontal Support where we were about a month ago. That would provide us with a wide sideways trading channel. I'm not expecting that to happen. But, you never know.
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Full Weekly Report tomorrow.
RB.
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- Weekend Charting and Chat - 3rd March 2017
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