weekend charting december 19, page-46

talktome,

the bond market is pricing risk into the bonds of blue chip stocks that it does not do in normal conditions. It
reflects spreads and fear in general in debt markets.

The economy doesn't have to be spectacular for these bonds to be worth face value, it only has to be not catastrophic. i.e. no armageddon and NABHA should go back towards 100 as the debt markets recover.

In the case of our big 4, as they keep telling us they're rated in the top 20 banks in the world out of thousands.
So if they do actually carry this risk then you could argue the whole world is doomed. So the point is I think
they are mispriced, and it would follow that they're not the only thing listed to be cheap. You can also see
mortgage holders getting upset as banks go above the rba rates, but the banks have a good argument as half their
capital comes from the bond markets so they're paying out on the other end. Once debt markets do loosen up and recover, there should be a huge knock on effect to everything including the XJO.

As far as the US earnings season goes you could be right, but my guess is it's a bit more complicated. I reckon the US is in real long term trouble anyway, UK even worse, and that the power and capital is moving to Asia. This is ok news for us, because they need our minerals no matter what. So my guess is that in 20 years time we will be more concerned with China's market than Dow Jones. imo...