Ultimately, I think that the spi is in wave 4 of a 5 wave down sequence... this is marked with the red numbers, including the initial drop (waves 1 to 3) and the current rise (wave 4)
Do I really know? no... I have had my head on right for maybe a year now, analysis wise, and even with historical data, I am darned if I cna say for certain my larger timespan views (weekly and up) are even vaguely corrrect.. all conjecture...
That being said, the black count is one I am suggesting is valid for current price action... the main supporter for us currently being in a B wave on this time span is that "b waves are notoriously hard to trade" this shallow and corrective rise is all of that.
Of note, the stumpy brown arrow on the chart is showing a strong bounce off the 21 period MA here, and I generally on lower time spans look for a THIRD hit followed by a breakthrough, to get more protracted downside... this is only the second hit since breaking through the 21 ma after marked low AN that's about all I can say, so.. Daily...
mmmm well here the marked blue trendline appears supportive, ish.
The last three hits on this trendline have corresponded with a bottoming on the stochastics (lower pane).. in fact apart from that section between points marked 14 and 15, there has been a great tradable phenomenon on these daily stochastics, sell on divergence on oversbought, buy on a bounce-up near or into oversold... Near or into Oversolde eh? bit wishy washy but mmm we are bounceing up near oversold on this oscillator right now....&
tentative upside call? (note I am bullish oriented vis previous post on 3 Peaks domed house)
Just for interest note the pattern highlighted between points 14 and 15 which I call the "elongated S" and which I think gives a potential trade possibility of a 50 percent retrace, up or down depending on shape of pattern, once it complets... First post on this pattern is here (link). all in all fronm this timespan... tentative bullish,, thanks to Stochastics and trendline...Plus tentative bullishness as per complex 3 peaks domed hous pattern in previous post
As per marked lows on price versus lows on MACD the MACD moving averages have been hinting at upside for a couple of days, culminating in the lates action overnight (european n US cash sessions). As can be expected, futures action during Australian cash close can be muted... but bearing that in mind a tentative 5 wave count is shown in red and could be regarded as completed.
the thick blue horizontal lines give a conjectured range, the upper being a line in the sand, for min) that if crossed suggests further upside. The upper segment is wihtin a bees appendage of 50% retrace of previous drop... and just for interests sace the red dashed moving average above price is the 200 period moving average which coincides with the 61.8 percent retrace of the previous drop.. a legitimate upside target also.
MACD moving averages suggest the entire up move so far could be wave 1 of an unfolding uptrend, leaving wave 2 (down) to occur, which could be anything from sweet FA to all the way back to near the previous low... unknown finish until it occurs Note that the bottom blue segment is between 50 and 61.8% retrace of recent upmove, a favourite place of mine to try to catch a bounce. Stochastics are divergent in overbought area at this stage hintin some downside could ensue over the next trading day., no other sell signals on this time span are present.
So... in conclusiion of this novel ( :) ) and cos it is getting late and I need ALOT of beuty sleep... Longer term I beleive that we higher to go before concerted downside... short term (next day or two) provides room for downside without negating this idea... a new low lower than the most recent will negate this being a wave 1 up on the hourly and reassesment will be required.. I am already long from the 4800 level on this chart, I am prepared to go long again at this level should price retest it.
(20min delay)