Weekend Chat 31/01 - Many Were Played, page-3

WEEKLY ORDERFLOW ANALYSIS:

What a night that was, While i was out all positions at 5pm, both sellers and buyers made some very good money, late sellers got played very hard.

The weekly TPO shows a couple of very telling things. Despite the sell and buy side activity on Friday, the day was relatively balanced with a large range, considering the state of both the VIX and A-VIX, this range would actually be considered normal and therefore we could simply call Friday's trade just a balance day. Secondly, we spent the entire week one time framing lower on the daily and until we get a higher daily high, bears still have the advantage. Lastly the weekly orderflow pivot 5993 worked exactly as it was supposed to, where one we got below it is, selling steadily continued. The pivot levels remains into the upcoming week, but likely to change based on orderflow.


Looking at Friday more in-depth, there isn't much to say, we left excess singles on both the top and bottom on the ETH profile, these likely to ass as S/R. Poor structure from RTH profile was repaired, the RTH profile did leave a poor high. Globally, $SPX found strong support at 3230 overnight, sellers could get below this.


Looking at the volume profile, breaking below 5993 meant we entered back into last months long-term balance area. As long as 5750 isn't convincingly broken, we could start accumulating at these levels and think about mid term long plays through past the election period, but before that happens we need a base to be built that we can reference.


All in all, a very bearish week and there isn't really any reason to think otherwise.

1. weekly order flow pivot remains at 5993
2. Flow zone into Monday is 5925 (excuse the confusion on the images)
3. Expecting more volatility into this week with the election on Wednesday

Regarding the election, if Biden gets White house and GOP get senate. Its very good for SPX. If dems win white house and senate, rotate into value

Last but not least, I want to give my personal congratulations to @bensh10 on the 300+ pts ripper trade - While I didn't make a monster 120pts intra day, I did close out my mid term short yesterday afternoon and i know the triple century feeling .



Its really all about positioning and conviction. With election this week and results likely to be contested through to 20/11 (I'm hearing via the grape vine) unless you're already positioned, this week will likely be CHOP with massive ranges (no different to what we saw friday), and it will be better just to trade intra-day.

CHOP SHOP should present us with a lot of opportunities.
- Day Traders Paradise coming up this next week