Weekend Chat - 4/5 July

What a trading week
Here is the four hour chart and it represents the last few week's price action. A week certainly for the bulls saw strong upward momentum into tuesday, there was some consolidation mid week pending certain data but as good economic news flowed the market continued upward. Despite COVID every day creating more new cases than the last. The market just brushed off those concerns.

On the CASH200 4hr chart, the 6135 level was rejected by sellers during fridays trade. CSL helped push the index higher and posted a strong green day. However the index posted a marginally green day like i predicted in my post here 45613842 none the less, the index topped out early friday morning and a went down hill quickly from there.



SPI night traders rejected the "Golden horizontal" which was the top of a very strong range which we encountered early last week. Looking forward, a break lower of the "golden horizontal" might see the index re-enter this consolidation before choosing it next direction. However if that horizontal holds expect the index to retest the PIV, R1 or potentially the weeks high.



Potentially a week for the bears as the RBA cash rate decision and statement is pending on Tuesday and Medium level impact data on Thursday regarding real estate and lending.

Globally, covid cases are spiking to levels not seen with 11 millions cases and Australia report circa 245 new cases. We have to constantly monitor the numbers but it certainly is not getting better as we were expecting it to. With lock downs easing, we have to see how this plays out.

We have to be reactive to price action this week, Institutional insurance remains at elevated levels and from here on out I am expecting some major turbulence for the ASX and the rest of the world as reporting season kicks into gear.

GLTAH