Weekend Musing - Dose Sales Growth

Hi all,

Time for a change of topic I think.

The topic I have been musing on is "Dose Sales Growth". I'm just wondering how easy this is in reality and what the main constraints are.

In comparison to someone like Telstra, or Coles, or CBA, I see year-on-year growth as being more of a challenge for SRX. The reasoning being that subject to a few customer losses / defections, your starting point for TLS/WES/CBA each year is last years sales. So in other words if you lose no customers and they transact in the same pattern as last year, you will get at least 0% growth. Any new customers and increased transaction volume/customer increases the growth.

But for SRX it's a bit different. Your starting point is zero. You have effectively lost all of last years customers because they are now treated or dead (except for a very few who might come back for a second go).

So every year you have to find sick people who want and can afford this type of treatment. And every year, to get growth, you need to go out and find more sick people who want this treatment than you did the year before. And of course they have to be in the location where SIR-Spheres treatment is available.

So, as I understand it the SRX marketing strategy is twofold - have more available centres, and convince more medicos that SIR-Spheres is the most appropriate treatment for patients. (I think this is what they refer to as "wide and deep" although I could be mistaken on that point. )

I'm just musing out loud, for any experts in this field who might know better than me, what the constraints are (in order!) eg (1) are there "enough" new people available in the right areas who need mCRC or HCC treatment every year (2) are we bringing on new centres quick enough (expanding capacity) (3) are we having difficulty persuading medicos to recommend SRX (4) do we have people, centres, and willing surgeons but patients can't afford it (eg no reimbursement) (5) Do we have people, centres, money and reimbursement but people are choosing Therasphere (i.e. competition) for some reason

Just interested in views, it is a discussion item more than anything, I'm sure there is nothing we can do about it!!

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