weekend musings - forward direction

Hi SWE'ers and those watching...

Firstly, Just to say I do hold (so yes, I want it to go up), and increasing my holding when I can (happy for it to stay were it is for another 4 weeks, when I have more money is available). I am only sharing this for that purpose, sharing and hope that any HC members can make a little (or a lot) from SWE.
Please note, I am not a financial advisor, and your own research should be your motivation to buy/sell any shares.

With SWE only being on the market for a short time (IPO), there is little recent information that has not already been covered (entire thread easily read), and we are now awaiting regional developments.

In saying that, I have found some more links pointing to how things may pan out for the East African Rift System (the region).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-17/warburg-pincus-to-invest-600-million-in-east-african-oil-search.html

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/incredible-increase-in-oil-gas-exploration-in-east-africa-industry-eyes-new-boom-region-1.328003

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/canadianreleasesdetail.aspx?n=8818918

There is now much publicity regarding our invitation to the third license area in Tanzania....the word is definitely out. Reputable sites now carry the news, and this is easily researched. (probably delayed due to last weeks fun and games with the global markets/currencies/gold all taking the precedence for news)

For those following the unfolding EARS story, we should all be aware now, that there is the potential for a nice rise in SWE, should our neighbours testing be good (all indications say it will).
With one of those neighbours also being our partner for block 12b in Kenya... Couple this with the already know discoveries in the region, de-risking is becoming a reliable fact.

As the links above, and others in the SWE thread acknowledge, there is very limited further licenses available for the Region and the desire to be involved is greatly heating up.

SWE has seen stable appreciation over the last couple of weeks, and held up well during the last few days turbulence. We have seen an few Iceberg sell orders (by the looks, one seller), and its noticeable they will move up and down as they get brought into, or not. Does this point to accumulation, ...In my opinion it does. Does this provide me some confidence, it does.
At a pure guess, I think we'd be up around the 23-25 mark today, had we not had the Iceberg given the volume we have been seeing over the last two weeks, so it has provided some stability, and buying opportunities.
EOY also probably plays some part....

We know of recent successes, we know of Tullows commitment to the region and their shift of focus to the region (selling other assets infact). We know they are going to have 5-6 rigs drilling there very soon (them and Africa Oil). From previous posts, they are committed to spending about 2B$ there, proving up and confirming prospectivity.

With each success regionally, we see the interest rise regionally, thus bringing about a sense of urgency from those without a play in the region.

The EARS is being spouted as the next HOTSPOT for Oil and Gas exploration. The early starters....yes we are one of them....are in the box seat for the exciting times ahead regionally.

Time is running out, to get a stake....or at least without having the price go through the roof to get a stake, or reduced percentage/cost.

Billions of barrels of the dark stuff is being proven, and flowing multiple 000's of BOPD and investment money is flowing in. I expect more results from Tullow & Africa Oil's two drill this week. (but would be great to wait until EOFY is over and done with)

For our part, we will be negotiating for a third block in Tanzania.

We are also about to commence seismic on the two blocks we have in Tanzania, which have so far indicated multiple basins (up to 5 I believe), with kms of sedimentary sands. This is also scheduled to be commenced very soon. (contract already awarded to Polaris)

If we do get the third license, I can see the Seismic being extended to also include the Eyasi license, which includes another 4 basins, each double the size of the Ngamia Discovery (Tullow) basin.....WHAT I hear you say?? -.

http://www.swala-energy.com/documents/2013-06-14ExclusivenegotiationsEyasi.pdf

Conclusion (hey ...but never a prediction),

SWE has some real assets, and not doubt some majors and super majors will be/are watching very closely. Whether we sell on de-risking even further, or drill and with a little bit of luck strike the sweet spot, there is much potential value in SWE given our low MC (shares on issue minus what I'd describe as being in safe hands).

Should we be granted further licenses (not many left regionally), we would be really sitting pretty. We have
~ 21000 square kms at the moment.

For me, the principle for the companies to get a stake, is the same for investors (me), buying before the frenzy to get in....maybe a little wait, but I feel good that that wait will be repaid many times over at/from these prices (SWE's MC).

A pipeline are already being talked about/planned...to dissect Kenya and Tanzania (so they can avoid Sudan)....right through our licenses....oohhhh, how sad :)

SWE, unlike some others (my opinion), provides some REAL & Justifiable potential.....potential at this time being paid for by our partners and neigbouring license holders. I don't mind at all getting a piggy back :)

Our board has "been there, done that" and today, that means a lot!

As we progress, I sincerely believe that SWE will be targeted...at some time, and it will come from 'left field, without warning'. so we end up with three potential possibilities Prove/Drill/Be taken out.....and all sound good to me.

I believe SWE deserves to be watched closely.

As always, risk reward, speculative play.

Again, please do your own research. This is only my view and opinion and should not be treated as investment advise.

Tomorrow everything might be better or....it may be worse.

Regardless of the shares you own, I wish everyone a good week. May EOY stuff be kind to you....hopefully most is already done, and only stragglers left this week, which might provide some buying opportunities.