weekend short term trading lounge 21 - 23 sept, page-54

Freehold... if it suits the criteria... I'll claim CTR... with an updated CTR summary. (And thanks for the Q & A on CTR thread, crackpot, points over there, made me do my homework more thoroughly).

CTR risky but very cheap... and market seems to be rewarding success of late.... so have splurged a bit of spare trading capital on CTR.

BCC, PVD, WHN etc all moving ahead with drilling news.... CTR with a much smaller market cap.... so upside could be very tidy.... and outcome to be known very soon.

100% spec.... typical oil play... win or lose to some degree.. but may be of interest to some, with oil shows already and cash to run away and try something else with if it's a dud.

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CTR - CITATION RESOURCES - previously CGV

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Drilling ahead in "Atzam #4" oil well in Guatemala.... (and a second well if first goes OK)

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FUNDEMENTALs....

1) Bullish oil market of late.

2) Oil drill to 4500 ft depth. Spudded late June 2012, at 1665 ft depth 11th September 2012 (had a minor delay).

3) Total Depth due by about 14 October 2012, target levels about 10 days before then.

4) Oil/gas encountered already... update as of 11th September said "Encouraging oil and gas shows were encountered in secondary reservoir objectives between 1,000-1,200ft".

5) Little known oil drill prospect in Guatemala

6) Some good success in region for oil production - but with older style drilling techniques applied to the previous Atzam holes... Atzam #4 now being attacked with better methods & only 500 meters away from production well (Atzam #2).

7) Atzam #2 had initial flow rates of 1200 BOPD of 36 deg API oil - till it got a bit slow down due to blockage etc...

8) Atzam #3 (also very nearby) also showed substantial promise.. then was plugged as they had flow difficulties. New Atzam #4 drill plan seems to involve careful drilling and cement work around known aquifer/water bed.

9) Asset purchased when previous owner divested it to pursue other project in Columbia. Has all gear to complete the drill on site, has oil treatment and storage equipment, airstrip, camp, drill rig and service rig. Pretty good deal.

10) Small market cap of approx $6 million at 2.2 cents per share (MC will increase if vendor shares stay... with drilling sucess)

11) $2.59 million in cash as of June 30 2012. Decent terms for completion and next hole etc.... CTR can claim 70% stake of current partner... for staggered issue of shares and oppies

12) CTR currently finishing due diligence... seems to be a fairly sure thing... with 1st stage of vendor shares issued this week.

13) "The Guatemalan Blocks on which Atzam #4 is located have TSX certified 51-101 certified reserves identifying proved plus probable (P1 and P2) reserve estimates of 2.3 MMBBL."

14) Fairly unknown/forgotten/lost little micro cap.... partly due to recent name change.

15) Some cheaper shares coming in due to vendor issue... but also some 4.0cent oppies to come into play.... may get a push. Seems to have been capped last week... with reduced buying interest allowing a tiny volume to push the price down 10%.

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TECHNICALs....

1) Lows of about 1.9 cents during last 12 months or so

2) Highs of about 3.0, 3.1 cents in last 12 months or so

3) Pushed to hard to 3.3 cents about 10 trading days ago, moving from about 2.0 cents... with positive, yet "quiet" oil show news

4) Has given up almost all those gains by Fridays close with $500.00 two-pip "dodgy sell-down"

6) Not a crazy number of share on issue... about 250 million.... plus about 160 million more to be issued with staged buy-in. Cannot see vendor selling down to their issue price though... as they be worth much more with drilling success.

7) 2 & 3 years CTA SP charts... are woeful.... SP has come from much higher (20, 15, 10, 8 cents) when it was a coal company. Perhaps some comfort/chance for limitation and selling pressure to confront new holders.

8) Risk/reward very tidy... $2.6 million cash recently... cheapish exit costs if well a dud... $6.46 million market cap... drill going good... halfway down hole.... "test-worthy" oil shows already.

9) Quite illiquid... so bollies of limited help... but charts but would suggest near term low of 0.018 worst case.... we will see. Very fair price if it gets there.


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CTA - very much DYOR on this one of course.... but worthy of traders ST watch-list at least.






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Not listing the following for the coming week.... but will also put in a heads-up for... RFX.

Shaping up nicely again with a well supported fund raising of late seeing the former "market darling" in much better financial shape.... uncertainty reduced dramatically.

RFX ... the hi-tech battery company.... not quite ready to head towards the $0.50 mark just yet.... but it's looking a whole lot more confidence inspiring this week.

RFX setup now very tidy with a pile of news/progress ready to be issued... great for a clever broker (RBS) to "work" with.

Called RFX at 6.4 cents last time - to see it run to 11.5 (from 5 cent range).... even well after a 6 cent raising was announced... it has regained its strength, now with decent support coming in again (props/buyers???) on the buy side right up into the 7 cent range. Some small but growing volumes finally returning late last week... presenting an improving trading opportunity.

Will post updates here as soon as any sure trends hold true.... worthy of a decent ST trade.

Have been keeping the RFX thread alive... as this battery tech stuff is of great interest to me given the industry ties I have... but of even greater interest is to see multi-million $ battery sales really starting to happen for companies like GE - their DURATHON battery sales surging in the USA. REDFLOW a very worthy competitor.

RFX market cap still tiny.... well below asset backing... and factoring in $0 for potential contracts and sales.

"Energy Storage" sector starting to be noticed again after a 18-24 month lull. Worthy of keeping in mind.

If anyone on the ST thread has any other energy storage or battery companies on the ASX... I would be happy to hear of them... so I can continue my research and comparisons to RFX.

Thanks in advance.

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bsh