If one looks back 100 years+ at our market, then there are some easily defined bull markets and others with pauses or minor corrections so it it is hard to define.
They can range from maybe 5 years to 20 years.
The problem is that the the '02/'03 bear hardly qualifies as a bear, more like a pause on a long term log chart, so is this only a 4 year bull or anything up to a 23 year if you start at '74, which was a "definite" bear, or somewhere in between.
Adding to something I mentioned in the last thread, that is too long now to continue, 6 weeks and 2 days has been the up legs 3 times since Sep and the other time was 7 weeks.
IF Friday was a low then another 6 weeks and 2 days gets us to 12th June which is McLarens date for a US high. 7 weeks gets us to 15th June which is a new moon, which often brings in important tops.
15 days down from either brings us to around my June 27/28th low date.
I still have concerns here about upside.
Apart from a standard 14 day RSI, I keep a 5 day one, which I find is a good guage of momentum.
The 5 day RSI went under 20 in early March but although price has gone to new highs, it has been unable to get above 80, which is rare.
This signals weak momentum or neutral at best.
It may get over yet, but the only other occurrence I can find, going back to '82, like this is the March to June period in 2001.
Even there it did sneak just over a couple of times so this is weaker than then, so far.
At that time, after a sharpish correction, the market went to new highs, topping after 61 days, then went sideway until day 99 when it had huge one day spike up and that was the top for the year.
Day 99 was 30th June of course, lol, and RSI still didn't break 80.
So where does 61 days and 99 days come in here.
Gann students know 45/60/90 days etc are important times and in final moves of 90 days, even Mclaren says sometimes watch 99 days.
SPI had a low on 5/3/07 and XAO/XJO on 6/3/07.
61 days would be 5-6/05/07 and 99 days would be 12-13/06/07.
There's that 12/06/07 date again.
Even if it isn't a new high I suspect it may be a lower high as it has so many references.
Of course there will be ramps for futures expiration and financial year end as there always is.
If I get my 27/28th June low, you can bet that 29th which is the Friday will see a significantly higher close.
(20min delay)