Big picture view here... showing SPI since the start of the decline in Late 2007.
I have a conjectured down wave that currently fits with price action and Vis the dashed black line we are STILL in a downtrendon this timespan.
So to tackle the downside, my conjecture is that the red numbers show a potential five down wave count, with termination of the 5th leg still to occur, at the downside area of 4000 ish n below.
The 4th leg up is neatly explained by the black numbers, and the 5th leg down could just as neatly be explained by the Current marked start of an ABC pattern, with potencial for C to be around the solid black trendline...
So, I am kinda suggesting here that the channel as marked with Horizontal black thick trendlines, dashed on top, solid on bottom, may be valid... The solid came first, the dashed is just a parallell copy placed at a nice "hit n hope - Maybe this could happen" level.
Interesting historical hits on the highs around 2007 particularly as I was not looking that far back historically when I first put that line there.
Other stuff of note. MACD Historic Upside Histogram targetting suggested upside was in the range of 5400 to 5000 this upside range has been hit (just) at the level marked by the black 5
Historic Downside Histogram targetting suggested downside levels in the range of 4000 to 3600.
These have not been met yet.
Current Crossover signal line over slow to the upside moving average xover
Current Moving average location MACD signal line is just kissing the zero level from the underside.. at this level this basically means "No Trend".
Stochastics: rollover but don't mean nothing until signal line crosses slow... not there yet...
Price Level: Above teh 21 MA, and also above a cross up of 13MA...200 ma is up around the horizontal Red solid line level
Patterns Triangle Target
Just above point A i drew a triangle in an area that I saw price being bounded some time back.... Triangle broke to upside then broke back and since has achived new highs. Taking a pattern target of the width at the start of the price trap, and applying it to the next higher low, gives the thick blue segment which is interestingly enough at current highs, and as highlighted by the pink line als marks some interessting historical resistance, relevant to current price.
Hmmmm
My thoughts here are swayed to the potential of downside being greater than upside. Although there is room for more upside always, here would be a good place to start a decline.
Daily
mmmmhmmm the daily killer congestion From May to October. Now this time, I have marked out an upsloping thick black dashed trendlin, and made a parallel copy of it which is sloid black thick
Some convenient and judicious placement gives me a convincing channel from the low in July...
Downside signals to me have gone off here and on this timespan.
Firstly, divergence on the daily stochastic... this divergence occurred over september, and had a couple of fakeys...NOW the stochastic appears well on the way to the oversold area. The last few examples have been great for results, but one has to be aware that these signals don't last forever. Suppose they were still valid though... we are pretty much in the zone to sell here... A couple of things again purely on this timespan seem to support this short term histogram clusters going back to late september have been divergent to rising price. This has now been followed by divergence in teh MACD moving averages, Price has sincke broken the 21 period moving average, and gone back to test it...
Only in the Realm of possibilities, not certainties is the equal measure move consideration with the light blue vertical line segments all being of equal length... It is easy in a fit of bearishness to consider these last two peaks are merely a three wave struture about to be retraced back to late June lows n more, supported by the idea that three wave structures oft have close to equal legs.
lotta personal ducks lining up there ... the channel though is really only feel good factor at the moment the break of price below the 21 period moving average after localised price and MACD divergence, coupled with the potential exhibited by the stochastic has me beliving we are in a swet spot hare for a fairly high level short position on this timespan.
Risk I perceive as not too bad (ONLY ON THIS TIMESPAN), as one is within the top third of a potential ddownside range to the bottom of the hopeful channel, with upside being relatively close with clear stop potential. I get all excited with capital letters though as one must consider that it does not look like much upwards if one is wrong, but the reality is the potential of 200 plus points UPSIDE Before one can truly say we are not topping now.
Histogram targetting tho gives only 4500 (90 odd below current) as the most conservative, so we shall see, potentially, a lot of congestion below, or just as conceivable a rejection of current levels and a slice back to previous downside support somewhat quickly.
Upside potential..
so hard to figure for me here... unlike the US we never really got a daily Buy signal from the MACD histograms and moving averages on this charting package, due to extremeties caused by the flash crash low.
We still have potential upper bounds of an expanding wedge going on, and we also have some interesting corelations with a "three Peaked Domed Hous" doco'd chart pattern from the DOW.
Here's a look at how these two are going on...Still on daily timespans.
The Red/brown trendlines give a pheasible expanding wedge, the purple numbers are a rouch Level based map of a three peaked domed house pattern.
I do keep moving the numbers out from 9... I have guessed at levels for the following numbers (10 up) and I think timewise the unfulfilled numbers are all squashed up. the pattern could still well be valid... It's just fer fun for me though as somehow my Nrain does not yet allow the possibility for such a complex pattern to really be predicatable at thisstage... should it happen though... mmmm brought t my attention by another so only mapping and cant claim kudos :)
So Daily, from my perspective, sweet sell spot, requires time to see if it works but easy to convince myself that Sell is the go as of now on this instrument on this timespan.
N what pray tell does the intraday say?
Hrly
mmmmmmm Okay looking at channels and parallel lines again... from the most recent top, a fairly net trendline occurs highlighted by the thick solid black downsloping trendline.
a parallell copy of this as the dashed thick line has picked up some interesting historical resistance from a couple of weeks ago and seems a nice fit.
As marked by the ellipses and price on the MACD moving averages, we have a buy signal on this timespan.
it can also bee seen that looking at the thick downsloping black solid trendline, price can be considered to have broken this, although below it again now. local action wave wise, as marked by the 123, could be a three wave corrective structure to be retraced up and possibly more. There is interesting resistance here historically also.
Histgram targets give a range between thin blue horizontal and thin black horizontal... as upside targets tending to support further up. dodgy time for this timespan, as falure of the first signal after a protracted move or trend start can often happen. Hard to hang one's hat on but a buy signal on this timespan cannot be ignore, an price is currently in a short term uptrend from that last ellipsed low.
The two last lows I have placed an upsloping trendline, and did a "nice fit" with the dashed parallel copy above it to macke a ovely channel idea .. that's all it is though, nice idea..
However after placing this channel on there, I zoomed back out and once more interesting historical significance of this angle and trend...
don't mean much but innteresting...
So Hrly is not really forthcoming... the buy signal cannot be ignored and as such if the MAC moving averages were to make it above the zero line and head topwards then one would be looking for an oposite Sell signall on this timespan or lower to help with shorts.
Going back to the first hourly chart though, stochastics have gone straight to oversold again.
so at this stage, not having gotton on the very start of the long signal on this hourly, I am more inclined to look for levels to short on to assist the daily indications, so marked upper levels would be interesting for me, and further movements above these levels would place me in a state of confusion and reassesment. Mondays can be good for that though :)
Lower timespans well hard to call.
looking at the "trick Trade" potential based on S&P500 final action I would be more inclined to be short biased than long AFTER opening on our market, particularly if we gap up.
Of great interest to me at the moment though not going into any great detail here is what I also see in S&P500 DAILY chart
I have a barely discenible second stage sell signal now, divergence in histograms followed by the barest of divergence on the MACD moving averages.
Serious divergence showing on the stochastics
Acheivment of highs hinted at by equal measure moves and by histogream targetting...
mmmmmmmm
though not as convincing as "our" spi market, I am gettting ready to be convinced of shorts on this timespan on this instrument too. . My focus is looking for good places to short from at this stage in the week...What I do though may be bizzarely stupid from a master traders perspective or based on too much "I want to see this so I will find it" stuff.
we'll see.
I would so like our market to gap up on open though :).
(20min delay)