weekend thread, page-10

Here is an alternative short term long opinion to my last post which indicated a short. I have, to the best of my resources, compared the ASX 200 to the VIX S&P500 index whilst playing around with some numbers. In my opinion, this is a critical week as the ASX200 has only just broken resistence however could trail back towards the decending trend. The VIX on the other hand has also been following a downwards trend and also seems to be breaking resistence pushing towards that 20 safety net level (IMO). As you can see from MArch to April, the VIX trend was pushing towards the upper support which lead it to break out at the beginning to the bear market contraction.

Neverthless, these graphs are indictors IMO similar to 2008/09 when the VIX hit 90 and decided to shift sideways until the 60 level where it then contrinued to draw a nice pattern on the resistence barrier whilst the market took off. There is definately a bear market rally awaiting us around the corner, its just a matter of will it begin this week or next week. IMO, if the week starts off to a good start with little economic disturbance then towards the later half of the week, I expect that the market should begin to drift upwards.

I have now revised my earlier prediction from the temporary short to now hold until a more distinct picture is made. I assume this will occur when:

1. Volume begins to increase (check my last post)
2. One of the above chart trends shows a clear breakout. FOr example, Late May - early April.