Well well well a waffle after a few weeks absence of same.
truth be known, I kinda think Redbacka's reports tend to pretty much come to the same conclusion as my stuff week in week out, so had kinda thought my esoteric self-agrandising squiggly charty stuff was a bit superflouous n somewhat unwarranted n confusing, but a subtle hint from a wise head here suggested even if it provides a bit of use for one or two tis still worth the posting.
Also though I know it's dumb... my technical posts generally get thumbed down now, and must admit this does peeve me a bit but I have found a solution to that and have removed the thumb view from my setup so will be less of an agravation for me...
On that note however, sigh, I've done it again and suggested on the CDU thread that people might be hotheads n need to calm down before they start a flame n baiting war n get suspended, which funnily enuff got a reaction of "self-appointed sherrif" and "hearts going to heads" (not that that has ever happened before, LOL nor that I haven't inflamed the ire of a few on this thread and others by jumping up and down in a perhaps misguided and badly handled attmpt to break up a perceived fight... oooops...)
So upshot is, expectations that the ole heart will dissappear as I have suggested to about 500 people, some of the f/a persuasion to which my stuff is of no interest, that they should put me on ignore... hopefully that will occur and put me back in my place so I can continue to yell at people only now they wont give a stuff! Actually prolly what is more likely to happen is ... a big fat nothing... LOL however a few new well deserved hearts are up and coming and I am more than happy to get rid of the thing now.
Ahh life is grand again :)
Doom gloom downside pain retrace fear and loathing...
I am reading many famous bulls becoming bears.
I am hearing of some interesting natural disasters.
As Tad pointed out we have one business oriented newspaper saying rallys are on.
Aaaand some t/a stuff is hinting at least short term upside is exhausting...
yeah yeah yeah it has been hinting that for about three months now... but it is REALLY hinting it okay...
So... onto the nitty gritty
Sunday 27th Sep 2009 Top down technical analysis of the XJO Futures This is a weekly report prepared by Winkinatcha. Observations from recent Price History This section shows how the last week’s price movement appears when presented on charts in various time frames.
As unbiased as possible, technical observations are made.
On the charts I use a number of indicators, both on price itself (simple moving averages (200 period, 21 period and 13 period)) and as separate indicators (a simple MACD including moving averages and histograms., and a simple stochastic oscillator).
I count waves and occasionally use more esoteric stuff if I see something interesting and worth commenting on..
Monthly
Observations Price has crossed the 21 period moving average, though is still “attached”. Note that on lower timespans each time price has performed this act of crossing the 21 MA it has resulted in a sustained up move. Can it happen here as well?
The 21 period moving average will now act as a support area.
Weekly WeeklyXJOFutures Observations Price has satisfied the “requirements” for a three wave up move after a 5 wave down… “Satisfaction” being provided by the completion of an equal price move up in the third wave as for the first. MACD On this time span the MACD moving averages are showing no signs of weakening with an almost parallel rise of the slow (red) and fast/signal (blue) since they crossed the zero line. There is ever so slight divergence on the histograms with a minor decline over the past few weeks, highlighted by the blue segment on top of the latest positive histogram cluster. Stochastic Ever so slight divergence showing in the weekly stochastic by the thin blue lineon the top of the latest peaks.
Daily DailyXJOFuturesBigPic Observations The dashed horizontal line on price shows the projected level for a three wave up, and price is having “difficulty” getting away from this level.
MACD Note the wave count on the MACD. 5 waves up and a possible failure of a 7th wave suggests that the momentum trend may be exhausting. We have the barest of crossovers of the signal line down over the slow line on the macd MAVS. A potential sell, for this timespan.
Stochastic Fairly marked divergence on the very recent price peak with the stochastic now crossing out of the overbought region and showing possible breakdown.
Of great interest here is the following “Stochastic Dome”
Now I am sure these have been written about somewhere by someone else, but I haven’t seen it yet to confirm if this is a “known” pattern. However on lower time spans these domes, whether inverted like this one or round the other way generally herald a Rapid change of direction or opposite move of price. Not necessarily a true collapse, as price tends to recover or slow down fairly quick once the stochastic gets into the opposite area. Have not seen such a fine example on a daily chart before and I am watching this’n with heightened interest.
Stochastic has crossed over the 80 level, a potential precursor sign to downward price movement.
Hourlywavecounts
Current Observations Absolutely beautiful wave count on the hourly. On the left hand side we can see a 3 wave down wave count followed by a 5 wave up wave count. This does not necessarily mean downside is imminent, however it does suggest that the recent up trend is now exhausted. A new trend could be in either direction up or down. Note the gap on the left hand side of the chart around the location of the thick red horizontal line.
Hourly Zoom
Localised downside targets as suggested by the dotted red cross hairs and recent divergence has been met. Price over the 23rd to 25th decline has performed a corrective structure and with price currently above the first low, further upside here is possible, particularly taking into account the last 16 odd hours of price action which though declining is corrective and may yet see another impulsive move to the upside similar to the strong impulsive move that occurred during the 25th cash open..
MACD With the MACD on the zero line, future direction is hard to determine on this time span
Stochastic Stochastic is pointing down
Ten Minutes TenMinutesXJOFutures
Trying to do too much predictive stuff on this time span and lower after a weekend is fraught with foolishness, however I just wanted to point out a nice setup which I have been using with some success recently.
The setup is as follows: Low on price (1) followed by a lower low (2) with a higher low on the macd moving averages (2). Price then pierces the 21 MA, closes above and retests then takes off (around the red arrow area). NICE!
All caveats about prediction after weekend aside, not the impulsive move from 2 and the latest move being corrective suggesting as mentioned on the houry that another similar impulsive move up may occur.
Executive summary Monthly No real comment, not enough data on a bar by bar observation to make any real predictive comments. Weekly Upside Strength is still apparent in the MACD Moving averages. Though minor negative divergence shows on the histograms. Long term targets still suggest that 50% retrace of the drop from 2007 highs is possible with a target range from 5000 to 5400 ish (61.8% Fibonacci retrace)
Downside A “satisfied” three wave up could see the beginnings of a correction soon. Daily Upside Not a lot of hits to upside on this timespan Downside Stochastic “dome”, strong MACD histogram and Moving average divergence, Crossover of MACD moving averages after an apparent failed seventh wave up all suggest downside, though not a given is more and more likely.
Intraday Hourly A clean 5 wave count on price suggest the current trend over the last month is nearing completion/exhaustion. At close of the overnight session the market appears “in balance” on this time span. Short term recent corrective structures allow for another crack at recent highs, with a very recent (Friday day) strong impulsive move to the upside followed by a corrective minor downtrend.
10 minutes Predictions at this time not worthwhile. Conclusion Although longer term weekly/monthly timespans still have room for 10 percent or more upside, weakness is showing on the daily.
Intraday timespans suggest very recent highs may be retested in the next trading day.
Should recent highs be retested then this could well mean a three peak situation occurs over the last 5 trading days which is often a precursor to a downside trend change and will be well worth observing for signs of such occurring.
All in all my focus will be more toward the short side and looking for potential short opportunities, particularly if a break to the downside at the 4640 level occurs.
The usual gap observation on Market open will be made, gap up look for short opps, gap down look for long ops.
Safe trading all y’all
(w0000t and I managed to get this posted while it IS still the weekend... by 12 minutes, LOL!)
(20min delay)