weekend, page-43

Firstly I have to admit that the bigger picture looks pretty constructive at the moment for the bullish picture. That allows for a pullback first possibly.

My longer term bearish thoughts had been comforted by people like Laundry, McLaren and Alan Oliver who seemed to agree that bad years are still ahead. At the moment that bearish view looks suspect to me but here are a couple of observations.

Laundry: It has been frustrating as he called for Aug 26 as the start of the major next decline, then it became early Sep and now late this coming week. It is tempting to forget him.

However, when I first noticed him, he was calling for a major top in Sep 2007 (I don't recall what exact date). Yes it wasn't till Oct 11 in the US and Nov 1 here, but now it seems insignificant that he was a bit early with his calcs.

Is it significant that we topped 21 days after the US in 2007? If you take Laundry's call for Aug 26 (which didn't happen), and add 21 days days, you get Sep 16 for here!

Perhaps its too soon to dismiss him.

McLaren: Although he hasn't mentioned the pattern currently, if I recall my video instruction years ago from him, one of the featured bear market constructions was 3 attempts to rally after a decline before the bear continues. Surely this is what we have had.


In the end you don't fight the market of course.