Intraday Market Thought
from Ashraf Laidi.com
2011.01.21 19:33: HISTORICAL PARALLELS OF DOW-30 & S&P500. The DJIA is up for the 8th consecutive week, while the S&P500 ended the week lower after 7 straight weekly gains. In the case of the Dow, the last time there was an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, before the index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash. The weekly RSI on the Dow has exceeded the 70% level for the 1st time sincethat same last week of April. Aside from the Mar-Apr 2010 period when the Dow gained for 8 straight weeks, it was back in Nov 2003-Jan 2004 when such an interrupted winning streak occurred. The time before that was in Jan-Mar 1998. As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, youd have to go to 1995 when the Dow-30 rallied for 10 straight weeks (Mar-May 1995). In the case of the S&P500, it posted 7 consecutive winning weeks, the longest period since 2007. We have to go back to Nov 2003-Jan 2004 to find 9-straight winning weeks in the S&P500. COMBINING THE HISTORICAL implications of these extended rallies with the overstretched oscillators, equity markets could be looking at the much anticipated sell-off that many of us market watchers have gotten so wrong. There are other elements supporting these analysis emerging in FX MARKETS as well as in the INTER COMMODITY COMPLEX.
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