Hi all,Here's my take on BCN current price movement and what I...

Hi all,

Here's my take on BCN current price movement and what I believe lies ahead, for what it's worth. Any comments or alternate views welcomed.

I have attached two charts below one to provide overall context for this finanical year and the other to focus on the recent detail.

You will note that the context chart contains three pitchforks;
a longer term navy fork with internal 50% lines and an external 150% line in light blue,
a downwards sloping red pitchfork with one associated red Warning Line, and
a the most recent blue pitchfork with internal 50% lines and the first Reaction Line (R1) in light green.

Note that the stochastic is continuing up on a series of higher lows but still has plenty of upside left.

On the detailed chart (which gives a better view of the area of interest) you will see that the strong rise which occurred on 3 March took price to the 50% internal line of the blue fork and was followed by a further surge on 4 March (point A) which penetrated but could not close above the resistance level represented by the Lower Median Line Parallel (L-MLH) of the longer term navy fork. From then until 18 March, price effectively gathered steam.

On 19 March buying pressure saw it gap up on open and run strongly to penetrate and close above that resistance line of the navy fork (point B) and in the process also close above the 1st Warning Line of the red fork, effectively breaking free of that fork's influence. Today's action represents a failed 'back test' of that lower tyne of the longer term navy pitchfork, but it is interesting to note that price closed on the red warning line indicating that this line of former resistance has now acted as support.

What next?

There is still a gap that may well be filled with a further intra-day low this week, although only about 80% of gaps get filled and most of those within about five trading days. I would expect that price needs to close above the lower tyne of the longer term navy pitchfork and also penetrate and close above the blue pitchfork's internal 50% line before moving on to establish a high point for this leg in the region of the green Reaction Line. Price should then retrace (modestly I hope) at about the same slope down as that reaction line, before building once again for its next leg up.

Good luck to all holders.

Regards,
Bones
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CONTEXT:





DETAIL: