Weekly prices

Prices
For the week La and CE are Flat.  As far as I am concerned even if these were to go up 50% the impact would be very small.  ND PR is up US $0.45 , 1%. Again I do not find this good news because I am worried about a boom bust cycle and the faster it goes higher the more likely the bust part of the cycle.   Good news these prices will show up in Q1 for Lynas and that should help allot.    For four weeks now Nd oxide and PR oxide are unchanged. Movements are very small but the  Metals are showing a little weakness.   All this makes me believe that long term the best that will happen is flat prices. These prices will give Lynas about 0. 5 C  share  per year
If this was clearly demand driven I would feel a lot better but it appears to be supply only.   China Inc. is at about 50% of capacity.   How long before they decide to go to 60% to increase profits.   These prices help their profits allot but even a small volume increase would help allot more.
I think OPEC and oil is a great example of how effective supply hold backs are at long term price control.   Or better yet just look at the REE bubble a few years ago.  Everyone needs a stable environment Lynas, REE purchasers and investors for this to work.   Supply driven price increases of 50 % in 6 months and 33% in 2 months does not lead to stability, Unless there is a clear problem with supply,  a plant burning down. (Rounded numbers)

On another note I hold 300 shares of MCP about $9.00.   I recently received stuff from court that says this is official, not done just at the court. To put it in perspective this will be the third time offers have been made, PALA was second.   Sell price $1.2 M plus assume $100M of debt.  As a stockholder that is 0.000…. per share.   No short term impact on supply.   Long term who knows.   Who knows if the engineers can even be rehired.  

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tom-clarke-steps-up-to-buy-mountain-pass-rare-earths-mine-1493132379

http://www.foxbusiness.com/features...uy-mountain-pass-rare-earths-mine-update.html