weelky macd accurate since feb 2006...

I have been giving this some thought...

It seems stupid for me not to post on CVI, especially given I do not actually know any more than I did last week...or the week before.

I think as long as I limit myself to non-specific issues, then, whether I am aware of sensitive information or not, it will not matter?

Sounds O.K...but I may have to suck it and see?

What do people think...honestly?

Tony handled himself well with PLV, but we all know what the media did to him in the end. Granted however, my position is somewhat different to his.

For absolute clarity, I am not currently in possession of or aware of...in any way shape or form...information of a sensitive nature pertaining to CVI that has not yet been released to the market...period!

I may well become privy to information from time to time in the future however, at which times I intend not to post until said information has been released. Even here I must be careful however, as non-posting may well be seen as a "signal" something is to be released...lol...can't win!

Perhaps best to limit all future posts on CVI to information clearly in the public realm and not add interpretive commentary?

would hate to take a holiday, only to come back and see you guys have bought it up because

So...with this as a backdrop, I feel I should let everyone know I sorted out my CVI portfolio this week, in preparation for the period ahead. I now have just sit and hold stock...pretty much...and mostly options.

I reiterate...to date, I have not been provided with anything of a sensitive nature in my work with CVI, which is why I took the opportunity to adjust my exposure while I could. In short, I have changed my strategy with CVI to a predominantly hold and look away position, due to the simple fact that there may be times, no matter how rare, where I will not be able to buy or sell stock at my leisure, regardless of what the stock is doing!

This of course is because I may well be preparing something such as a PowerPoint presentation, etc, with yet to be released info therein.

It can be a little difficult when you need funds (ie, to pay renovation bills), yet cannot actually sell anything down due to trading blackout periods.

Whilst trading outside these periods may well be perfectly legitimate, in my view it is better to simply adopt an investor bias...which is why I have thinned down my previous position to a more sustainable long-term one.

Frankly, this has happened a little earlier than I had anticipated (I always intended to reduce to a long-term holding position in the 40c+ range), but none the less a move I felt was necessary.

As for CVI...

I assume developments on the finance front have drawn closer to their conclusion, so feel the timing of the current rise, on the back of a wider market recovery and indeed oil at US$124 per barrel, is somewhat permanent in nature.

I certainly hope so?

Anyway, below is a weekly chart showing the MACD oscillations...it has picked every macro move over the last 3 years or so with 100% accuracy.

The question now however is..."are we about to get another one?"

Looks to me like we need to see trading in the 14.5-16c range next week for the crossover trigger to be hit…then possibly a week of trading much higher following, as a lead in to a sustained period of significant increased as per the period from August last year.

Fundamentals seems to fit, which is always nice.

Lets hope so?

Cheers!