Wei 12-8 EAST Project - My Take, page-12

How many TO do we see at a 130% premium .. Answer- not many.
i think a 30c TO while stock trades at 13.5c is wishful thinking. If we take Petra 22c valuation and add let’s say 5 -6c cents for some exploration and appraisal success over next 12-24 months , gets us to 27-28c . This assumes a lower oil price than current ofcourse, but few would pay current spot valuation for Assets I imagine. So one would assume any acquirer would launch a TO at a level that they see value for them . So a 20c bid could see an acquirer benefit 40-50% or 60% is oil stayed elevated. It would also result on a price and a medium term return that major shareholders like Samuel Terry may be happy to exit. I couldn’t see a higher bid ST , unless we had some meaningful discoveries and reserve additions. Having said that a 20c bid would see a 50% gain for current shareholders which would for me be attractive. It is true a longer term hold may result in greater value extraction, but a quick 50% premium would also be attractive as one can naturally reallocate the capital . Either way I think we could extract 20-25c from HZN over next 3-4 years which I would see coming say from 12-15c distributions and selling existing shares. I we received 13c dividends over next 3 years and sold HZN at say 12c one would make nearly 90%. Not unrealistic if one considers end of June cash should be about 2.7c per share net cash and next 12 months cash cash flow circa 5.5-6c