weighing the odds

As each bit of new information is digested, be it by trying to understand a new announcement or analysing recent sp shenannigans, it affects our perception being what really are the odds of approval of this drug? And ultimately from our perception will come an appetite for how much exposure we want to risk. I think we all subconciously weigh the odds of success and failure.

My own perception at this point, and until a truly decisive announcement is made, is by the end of this year QRX sp is either worth $3:00 (75%) or $0:03 (25%).
I now have just over 100k of these shares and I will hold.