Lets investigate an example of the changes that can occur when speculation moves to agreements and you've got a good model to help calcualte the moves. Using Fergus's spreadsheets for a NPV on the 25 year cashflow he currently has 19c fair value now. We all know that if the EARS/DRI plant works for the two plants in the announcements then there will be multiple plants builts . Leaving the risk factors in, an agreement say with a US steel maker similar to the OST agreement for say, ten plants would take the share price to 45c.
Without any change except a signed agreement for the plant (say 95% sure of being built) the share price moves to 86c. This changes no other figures in Fegus's valuation.
A powerfull tool to test the value of your speculation when it moves to actual agreements.
So your question re: 50 EARS/DRI plants Fergus's model generates a $3.61 share value (if they were all built in the next few years).
These are figures predicting the future, whilst Fergus and most analysts rely on what is known for sure now.
Investors on this site often see the possibility of a $3.00 share price and sometimes factor it in as if it is here now, whereas using the increasing valuation reality (as agreements are completed) that share price is in the future (yay I say) when the progess is sure.
Much money is to be made when you pick the right emerging company. But to be upset if the market doesn't agree with the future price now leads to frustration and swearing at computers :)
Cheers
Seik
APG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
